Corn prices in Ukraine continue to decline amid low export demand

The blocking of exports from Black Sea ports has the greatest impact on grain prices in Ukraine, as the cost of deliveries through Danube ports or by car and rail to the port of Constanta has already risen to $100-140/t, so exporters are trying to ship expensive crops (rapeseed, soybeans or sunflowers) first. Such logistics make the export of corn and wheat unprofitable, which continues to reduce domestic purchase prices.

 

In a September report, USDA experts lowered their forecast for global corn production and stocks for the 2026/27 MY, which supported stock quotes. But the acceleration of the harvest in the US and the increase in supplies from Brazil and Argentina, as well as the supply of cheap Ukrainian corn to the EU, will increase supply in the next 1-3 months, which will limit the growth of world prices.

 

On the Chicago Board of Trade, December corn futures have been trading at $210/t for the past 7 days (+9% month-on-month), supported by a lower US corn harvest forecast and rainy weather that delayed harvesting.

 

USDA experts increased the forecast for initial and final corn stocks in Ukraine by 0.6 million tons, but left the export forecast at 22 million tons (compared to 23 million tons last year), although the suspension of exports from Black Sea ports may last at least another 3-4 months, and supplies through the western borders are limited.

 

Purchase prices for corn in Ukraine have fallen by 800-1000 UAH/t to 6000-7000 UAH/t on EXW-elevator terms and with delivery to processing plants since the beginning of September, although in the western regions there remains export demand for quick deliveries of the old crop at the level of 6500-7500 UAH/t loaded into a car for delivery to the EU.

 

The price of Ukrainian corn loaded into a Eurocar in October-December decreased to €170-175/t due to the absence and increase in the cost of Eurotrains and the increase in the cost of transshipment, while in January-March the price is €192-195/t.

 

From September 1 to 15, Ukraine exported 189,000 tons of corn (compared to 20,000 tons last year) due to the presence of significant stocks of the old crop. The largest buyers were Turkey (45.7 thousand tons), Italy (37.2 thousand tons), Germany (19 thousand tons), Cyprus (18 thousand tons), and the Netherlands (14.3 thousand tons).

 

November corn futures in Paris continue to decline and have fallen another 1.2% in the last 7 days to €262/t or $302/t, losing 5.8% since September 2 (when they reached a season high), but still trading 3.7% higher than a month ago.

 

Accelerating harvests in the EU and supplies from Ukraine continue to push down European prices, while increasing supplies from Argentina and Brazil will further increase pressure on prices in the EU.