USDA lowers forecast for global corn production and ending stocks due to lower forecast for the US

In the September WASDE report, USDA experts lowered the forecast for the corn harvest in the US and globally, and also reduced the estimate of world stocks, but quotes fell only slightly after the report was released, as analysts expected a more significant decline in forecasts.

The main changes in the world balance occurred due to adjustments to estimates for the USA. At the same time, USDA experts did not lower the forecast for corn exports from Ukraine at all, although shipments from Black Sea ports have been practically blocked since July 22.

The US corn production forecast was sharply reduced by 5.42 million tons to 401.33 (432.3) million tons due to another reduction in the yield estimate from 180.7 bushels/acre to 178.5 bushels/acre (which slightly exceeds the average analyst estimate of 178.2 bushels/acre) and a slight decrease in the estimate of the harvested area.

On Friday after the report was released, December corn futures in Chicago fell 0.7% to $208.8/t (+10.3% since the August report), and November corn futures in Paris fell 0.6% to €263.75/t or $306.4/t (+6.4%), as markets expected a larger decline in the export forecast from Ukraine and an increase in exports from the US, and consequently, a decrease in US stocks.

In the world corn balance for the 2025/26 MY, USDA experts increased ending stocks due to an increase in the forecast for the corn harvest in Brazil by 1 million tons to 141 (136) million tons, while the harvest estimate in Argentina was left at 63 million tons (49 million tons in the 2024/25 MY), although local analysts predict it at 70-71 million tons.

The world corn balance for the 2026/27 MY compared to August estimates has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of initial stocks was increased by 2.5 million tons to 301.38 million tons (295.7 million tons in 2025/26 MY) due to an increase in stocks in Brazil by 1.5 million tons and in Ukraine by 0.6 million tons (due to the suspension of exports).
• The forecast for world corn production has been reduced by 7.93 million tons to 1.2909 (1.3308) billion tons, including for the USA - by 5.42 to 401.33 (432.3) million tons, the Russian Federation - by 0.7 to 16.5 (14.8) million tons, as well as for India and Kenya due to a decrease in sowing areas and insufficient rainfall, which is partially offset by an increase in the production forecast for the EU by 0.4 to 50.6 (56.8) million tons and Canada.
• The estimate of world consumption has been reduced by 2.82 million tons to 1.3202 (1.3278) billion tons, primarily for the USA - by 3.81 million tons to 327.8 (336.69) million tons and Mexico - by 0.7 million tons, which is offset by an increase in consumption in Brazil by 2 million tons to 102 (98.5) million tons.
• The forecast for world corn imports has been reduced by 0.6 million tons to 203.11 million tons (196.33 million tons), in particular for Mexico - by 0.5 million due to rising prices.
• The forecast for world corn exports has been reduced by 0.4 million tons to 210.08 (218.2) million tons, in particular for Brazil - by 1 million tons to 43 (40) million tons, while for the USA the export estimate has been left at 83.19 (87) million tons.
• The estimate of world ending corn stocks has been reduced by 2.56 million tons to 272.1 million tons (295.7 in 2025/26 MY and 296.7 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for the USA - by 2.19 to 39.79 (48.8) million tons, while for Ukraine the forecast has been increased by 0.6 to 5.46 (2.85) million tons, and for Brazil - by 0.5 to 10.6 (14.8) million tons.

Corn exports from Ukraine continue across the western borders towards the main importer, the EU, but the blockade of Black Sea ports will significantly reduce export volumes, so the world corn balance will continue to be significantly adjusted in the coming months, and rising prices will limit demand and purchase volumes from importers.