Corn prices in Ukraine continue to decline as harvest approaches and logistics costs rise

Ukraine enters the new season with significant stocks of old-crop corn and uncertainty about exports, while world prices continue to rise.

 

According to USDA estimates, in the 2026/27 MY, the opening corn stocks in Ukraine were 2.25 million tons (compared to 0.84 million tons last year), and production will increase compared to the previous season from 30.9 to 31.8 million tons. At the same time, the export forecast in the August report was reduced by only 1 million tons to 22 million tons (compared to 23 million tons last year), although the suspension of exports from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine from July 22 leads to an increase in stocks and increases uncertainty with exports in the first half of the season.

 

Currently, Ukraine exports corn mainly by rail to the western border, but the quotas for transshipment and Eurotrains have already been practically bought out by traders by the end of the season for supplies primarily of rapeseed and soybeans, and only partially for corn.

 

We expect a further increase in the cost of rail and road logistics for deliveries from Ukraine across the western border to buyers in the EU in October-December, when deliveries intensify and vehicles will be used to harvest late crops, which will significantly reduce domestic corn prices.

 

Currently, corn prices delivered to elevators or processing plants are UAH 6,500-7,500/t, as some traders still export corn by rail. With the cost of delivery by road to the port of Constanta or to buyers in the EU at $120-150/t, corn prices will fall to $110-130/t or UAH 5,500-6,500/t on FCA terms.

 

November corn futures in Paris rose 14.2% in August to €277.75/t or $321/t amid a reduced harvest in France, but good harvests in Romania and Bulgaria will partially cover the needs of processors at the start of the season. In addition, supplies from Argentina and Brazil are growing sharply. The forecast for corn imports to the EU has been increased to 24 million tons compared to 18.3 million tons in the previous season, while Ukraine in 2025/26 MY reduced its share in corn imports to the EU to 40% (7 million tons) compared to 55% or 10.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY due to increased supplies from Brazil.

 

The halt in exports from Ukraine and the reduction in the US harvest forecast after the release of the Pro Farmer report with the results of the crop tour significantly supported corn quotes, but the market is awaiting the official updated September balance from the USDA, which may lead to price adjustments.

 

On the Chicago Board of Trade, December corn futures rose 15.2% in August to $214.5/t (+18.5% year-on-year) and are trading at a 3-year high. U.S. corn exports since the start of the 2025/26 MY (September 1, 2025) as of August 27 totaled 83.8 million tons, up 25.1% from the previous season, but exports may decline to 83.2 million tons in the 2026/27 MY.

 

Analysts continue to lower their U.S. crop forecasts. For example, the Allendale agency estimated production at 401.3 million tons, compared to 406.7 million tons in the USDA's August report and 432.3 million tons last season.