Argentina sharply increases corn exports amid halt in supplies from Ukraine

The suspension of grain exports from Ukraine leads to an increase in world prices and contributes to the intensification of corn supplies from Brazil and Argentina, which have harvested record corn harvests and are actively replacing Ukrainian corn in the EU and Asian markets.

 

According to market participants, thanks to a large harvest and high prices, Argentina may almost double its corn exports in August compared to July, from 3.22 to 6.56 million tons. In the first 8 months of 2026, the volume of already completed and planned export shipments of Argentine corn amounted to 33.8 million tons. Another 3.5 million tons of corn are planned to be exported in September, but experts believe that actual shipments may reach 6 million tons or even more.

 

The increase in exports is facilitated by a high harvest, which is forecast at 64-70 million tons this season. Currently, about 52.5 million tons of corn have been harvested in the country from 81% of the area, which provides a significant supply for the domestic market and exports.

 

Rising global corn prices are also boosting export shipments. December corn futures in Chicago rose 14.5% to their highest since mid-2023 at $211/tonne. Corn prices in Argentina rose about $20/tonne to $200/tonne FOB in the month, while December contracts are being signed at $207-210/tonne.

 

A large harvest and high world prices are encouraging Argentine farmers to actively sell corn, while they are in no hurry to sell soybeans, expecting their prices to rise.

 

Demand for Ukrainian corn from EU buyers remains strong, but rising rail and road logistics costs from Ukraine across the western border to EU buyers to $80-150/t are holding back supplies, although Ukrainian farmers are still hoping to benefit from rising EU prices. November corn futures in Paris rose 11% in one month to €269.75/t or $312/t, but demand prices for Ukrainian corn at the border remain at $195-200/t or $150-160/t FCA. However, as supply builds and logistics costs rise, prices will continue to fall, especially as EU prices also fall under pressure from increased physical supplies from South America and domestic harvests.