The USDA report was not as bearish as expected soybean market

Department of agriculture (USDA) in its October balance of supply and demand practically did not change the forecast of world soybean production, and only increased the initial and final stocks of 1.78 and 1.91 million tonnes respectively, primarily due to increased reserves in the United States.

the report Data USDA dispersed from forecasts of analysts of the market expected an increase of soybean production in the U.S. at least 1 million t. However, the experts, the USDA significantly reduced the area of harvest of soy, so despite the increase in the forecast yield of soybeans, the production estimate for the United States remained at the level of the September forecast 127,7 million t

Traders expected a further increase in soybean production in the U.S. and lower prices, but the unexpected data turned the market upward and soybean futures rose 2% to 317,6 $/ton, and soybean oil - by 1.8% to 642 $/t

the focus of market participants is now turned to the evaluation of soybean production in Brazil, since the increase in demand for Brazilian soybeans from China has led to an increase in soybean planting acreage by 3%, although drought conditions do not give hope for an increase in the harvest. According to estimates of the analytical Agency CONAB, the soybean production in Brazil to 2018/19МР will be 117-119,4 million tons, while the USDA predicts his level of 120.5 million tonnes, and exports to 75 million tons, compared to 76 million tonnes in the current season.

Also changed the estimate of soybean imports in China, which the USDA forecast at 94 million tonnes, although China announced a program to reduce imports of soybeans this season, up to 80 million tons.

Therefore, the soybean market in the coming months will be influenced by trade disputes between the US and China.