Rising oil prices supported vegetable oil prices

The oil market continues to see sharp price spikes, but vegetable oil markets have barely reacted to the 15% increase in oil prices in a week, as global oilseed balances have improved and supply continues to grow.

 

September Brent crude futures rose 15% to $85/barrel in 7 days (+18% in two weeks) amid the cancellation of the ceasefire between Iran and the US and the resumption of war in the Middle East with Iran's shelling of ships in the Strait of Hormuz and neighboring countries.

 

The most affected were soybean oil quotes, the December futures for which on the CBOT exchange rose by 5.2% to $1,557/t over the week (+2.2% over the month), although soybean prices in Chicago remained stable, so we can expect a rollback in oil quotes soon.

 

During the week, spot prices for soybean oil in Brazil, following quotes in Chicago, increased by $20-30/t to $1,190-1,200/t FOB, and soybean oil futures in Dalian (China) for August delivery increased by $10-15/t to $1,235-1,245/t.

 

August palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia traded at 4,574 ringgit/t or $1,120/t during the week as a slowdown in exports in June led to a rise in inventories to a 4-month high . Surprisingly, palm oil prices, which were previously highly correlated with oil prices, have recently remained stable and have not responded to speculative jumps.

 

The seasonal reduction in supply from the Black Sea region and increased shelling of Ukraine's Black Sea ports support demand prices for sunflower oil in India, which rose by $5-10/t to $1,445-1,450/t CIF Mumbai during the week, while offer prices for Russian sunflower oil rose by $30-40/t to $1,350-1,380/t FOB.

 

In June, the Russian Federation increased its exports of sunflower oil to India and Turkey (its main buyers) by 189% compared to May to 0.3 million tons, which exceeded the figure for June 2025 by 415% and became the largest volume since November 2024.

 

In Ukraine, this week , the Kernel oil terminal was attacked , damaging about 9,000 tons of sunflower oil, further reducing the already low supply from Ukrainian suppliers. Demand prices for sunflower oil delivered to Black Sea ports increased by $10-20/ton during the week to $1,345-1,350/ton, with only new crop oil currently on offer at about $1,300/ton FOB.

 

The increase in the forecast for the global sunflower harvest in the new season has not yet affected the prices of the new crop, and only the stabilization of oil prices and confirmation of a good sunflower harvest can significantly adjust prices in the fall.

 

The rise in oil and rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange led to an increase in rapeseed oil prices in the EU by $30-40/t per week to $1,535/t FOB Netherlands, but demand prices for Ukrainian rapeseed oil with delivery to the western border remain at €1,070/t or $1,220/t DAP.

 

We expect oil prices to stabilize and the supply of rapeseed oil to increase, which will calm the markets, as well as a decrease in the activity of importers, who will wait for lower prices for the new crop.