USDA improved the world oilseed balance for 2026/27 MY, but quotes continued to rise

In the July report, USDA FAS experts increased the forecast for oilseed production in the 2026/27 MY, further improving the global balance, but soybean and canola quotes continued to rise amid another increase in oil prices.

 

The forecast for global oilseed production in 2026/27 MY was increased by 1.8 million tons to a record 720 million tons, which will exceed the 2025/26 MY figure by 2.8% - 700.7 million tons (686.65 million tons in 2024/25 MY, 657.5 million tons in 2023/24 MY), due to an increase in sunflower production forecasts by 0.6 to 62.66 million tons, rapeseed - by 0.68 to 97.59 million tons, soybean - by 0.35 to 441.7 million tons, as well as cotton.

 

The forecast for global oilseed processing in 2026/27 MY has been increased by 1.8 million tons to 608.54 million tons (589.2 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 568.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY, and 543.74 million tons in 2023/24 MY) due to increased processing of soybeans and rapeseed.

 

World ending stocks of oilseeds in 2026/27 MY were reduced by 0.7 million tons to 146.31 million tons (146.04 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 144.4 million tons in 2024/25 MY, 136.1 million tons in 2023/24 MY).

 

The forecast for world soybean production has been increased by 0.35 million tons to a record level of 441.7 million tons (429.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 428 million tons in 2024/25 MY), and the world balance has hardly changed compared to June. At the same time, the production forecast for the USA has been increased by 1 million tons to 121.8 (116) million tons, and for the Russian Federation it has been reduced by 0.8 million tons to 8 (9) million tons. The forecast for Ukraine has been left at 5.6 million tons (5.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 7.2 million tons in 2024/25 MY).

 

After the report was released, November soybean futures in Chicago rose 0.8% to $437.5/t, 5% above the level after the June report.

 

The forecast for global sunflower production has been increased by 0.6 million tons to 62.66 million tons (55.28 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 53 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for the Russian Federation - by 1.2 to 20.7 million tons (17.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 16.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY) due to an increase in sowing areas by 1.5 million hectares. For Ukraine, the forecast has been reduced by 0.5 million tons to 13 million tons (11 million tons and 13 million tons in previous seasons), and for the EU - by 0.1 million tons to 9.8 million tons (8.7 million tons and 8.6 million tons in previous seasons).

 

In Ukraine, prices for sunflower with 50% oil content remain at UAH 32,000–33,000/t delivered to the plant, which corresponds to the level of last month due to a supply shortage at the end of the season, while export prices for sunflower oil increased by $10–15/t to $1,330–1,340/t delivered to the port.

 

The forecast for world rapeseed production in 2026/27 MY has been increased by 0.69 million tons to a record 97.6 million tons (95.57 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 86.29 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for the Russian Federation - by 0.4 million tons to 6.4 (5.5) million tons and the USA - by 0.27 to 2.48 (2.13) million tons due to an increase in sowing areas. For Ukraine, the forecast is left at 4.35 (3.5) million tons, Australia - 6.8 (7.7) million tons, and the EU - 20.5 (20.5) million tons, despite the dry weather in June.

 

August rapeseed futures in Paris fell 0.5% on Friday to €516.5/t or $589.6/t (-2.3% month-on-month), but November futures are trading €11.5/t higher on expectations of lower crop forecasts for Canada and Australia.

 

November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange rose 0.5% to CAD 777.6/t or $549/t (+1.6% month-on-month) amid excessively rainy and cold weather in the prairies, which is delaying canola development.

 

The resumption of the war between the US and Iran led to an increase in Brent crude oil prices from $72 to $79/barrel last week, which continues to support oilseed markets.