USDA improved the world oilseed balance for 2026/27 MY, but quotes continued to rise

In an August report, USDA experts increased the forecast for oilseed production in the 2026/27 MY, further improving the global balance, but soybean and canola quotes continued to grow amid another increase in oil prices and restrictions on exports from Black Sea ports.

 

The overall world balance of oilseeds has been changed as follows:

• The forecast for global oilseed production in 2026/27 MY has been increased by 1.05 million tons to a record 721 million tons, which will exceed the 2025/26 MY figure by 20.3 million tons - 700.6 million tons (686.65 million tons in 2024/25 MY, 657.5 million tons in 2023/24 MY), due to an increase in rapeseed production forecasts by 0.5 to a record 98.09 million tons and soybeans - by 0.55 to 442.25 million tons.
• The forecast for global oilseed processing in 2026/27 MY has been increased by 1 million tons to 609.54 million tons (590.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 568.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY, and 543.74 million tons in 2023/24 MY) due to increased processing of soybeans and rapeseed.
• The estimate of global ending oilseed stocks in 2026/27 MY is left at 146.3 million tons (145.7 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 144.4 million tons in 2024/25 MY, 136.1 million tons in 2023/24 MY).

 

The forecast for world soybean production was increased by 0.55 million tons to a record 442.25 million tons (429.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 428 million tons in 2024/25 MY), and the world balance was almost unchanged compared to July and June. At the same time, the production forecast for the USA was increased by 1.2 million tons to 123 (116) million tons, and for Ukraine it was reduced by 0.2 million tons to 4.7 million tons (5.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 7.2 million tons in 2024/25 MY).

 

The estimate of soybean acreage in the US has been increased by 1.4 million acres to 85.8 million acres, while the soybean yield forecast has been reduced by 0.3 bushels/acre to 52.7 bushels/acre, so the soybean production forecast has been increased to 123 million tons.

 

Following the report, November soybean futures in Chicago rose 1.2% to $437.5/t, supported by the closure of Black Sea exports, but overall closed 0.6% below the level seen after the July report.

 

The forecast for global rapeseed production in 2026/27 MY has been increased by 0.5 million tons to a record 99.08 million tons (95.68 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 86.29 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for Canada - by 0.5 to 22.5 (22) million tons due to favorable conditions and precipitation in the prairies.

 

Yesterday, November rapeseed futures in Paris rose by 0.9% to €536.75/t or $619/t (+1.7% month-on-month), and November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose by 1.9% to CAD795/t or $570/t (+2.2% month-on-month) amid rising oil prices and restrictions on exports from Black Sea ports, failing to respond to an increase in production forecast in Canada.

 

The forecast for world sunflower production was left at 62.62 million tons (55.05 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 53 million tons in 2024/25 MY), with the forecast for the EU reduced by 0.3 million tons to 9.5 million tons (8.7 million tons and 8.6 million tons in previous seasons), which will be offset by an increase in the forecast for Argentina to 8 (7.5) million tons. The forecasts for the Russian Federation were left unchanged at 20.7 million tons (17.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 16.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY) and for Ukraine -13 million tons (11 million tons and 13 million tons in previous seasons).

 

In Ukraine, sunflower prices fell by 7,000-8,000 UAH/t to 25,000-27,000 UAH/t with delivery to the factory in a month, and prices for the new crop are declared at 19,000-20,000 UAH/t due to the suspension of sea exports and southern factories due to shelling.

 

Mutual attacks on the port infrastructure of Ukraine and the Russian Federation have practically stopped the export of grain and oilseeds from Black Sea ports, which keeps prices for vegetable oils and oilseeds high, and any steps that stop the shelling of ports and ships can significantly adjust world prices against the backdrop of fairly good world balances.