The growth of quotations on US stock exchanges has not yet supported wheat prices in Ukraine

Successful strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on ships in the Sea of Azov blocked the logistics and export of Russian grain from Azov ports and led to an increase in wheat quotes on EU and US exchanges, which has not yet supported prices in Ukraine.

On US exchanges, wheat prices continue to grow actively for the second week in a row on forecasts of a reduced harvest in the US and the EU and a possible reduction in supplies from the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

Over the week, September wheat futures rose:

• by 3.4% to $233.4/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+9.3% in two weeks),
• by 2.6% to $244.8/t - for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+8.3%),
• by 3.6% to $240/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+8.6%),
• by 5% to €214.75/t or $244.6/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (+5.9%).

According to NASS Crop Progress, as of July 12, winter wheat in the United States had been harvested on 67% of the area (61% on average for 5 years), and the number of spring wheat crops in good and excellent condition increased by 1% to 58% (54% last year).

Wheat exports from the USA for the period July 2-9 increased 2.8 times compared to the previous week to 373.6 thousand tons, but in total since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY (June 1) amounted to 1.89 million tons, which is 17.3% lower than the pace of the previous season.

According to FranceAgriMer, in France, between June 29 and July 6, the number of soft wheat crops in good and excellent condition decreased by 3% to 65% (68% last year), and as of July 6, the crop was harvested on 59% of the area (32% last year).

In Ukraine, grain harvest rates have slowed due to cold and rainy weather, which is helping grain to fill up in the western regions. Grain yields in the south of the country are currently 40% higher than last year.

During the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine increased slightly against the backdrop of an increase in the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market, in particular, for food wheat - by 100 UAH/t to 10,500-10,600 UAH/t or $206-210/t, and for feed wheat - by 100-300 UAH/t to 9,800-10,100 UAH/t or $192-197/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Demand from traders remains low, especially given the increase in shelling of Odessa ports and damage to ships and terminals by the Russians in retaliation for attacks on ships in the Sea of Azov.

Forecasts of a reduced corn harvest in France continue to push up prices for feed corn and wheat on the Paris stock exchange, which will help boost demand from importers and support prices for Black Sea wheat in the coming weeks.