A 10% reduction in the barley harvest in Ukraine is keeping prices high, but in the future they will be pressured by low prices for feed wheat and corn

As of August 22, 2025, the barley harvest in Ukraine is almost complete, with 4.97 million tons (winter and spring) threshed from 95% of the area or 1.305 million hectares with a yield of 3.81 tons/hectare, which is 3.2% lower than last year. Therefore, the harvest compared to the previous season will decrease from 5.8 to 5.2-5.3 million tons.

The reduction in production has led to a decrease in supply, so export prices for barley remain high, despite falling prices for feed wheat and fairly low forward prices for corn.

Last week, export prices for barley in Ukraine increased by another 100-150 UAH/t to 10,250-10,350 UAH/t or 215-217 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, which significantly exceeds prices for feed wheat ($203-206/t) and forward prices for corn ($195-200/t). Against this background, farmers in the western regions have intensified their barley sales. It is worth noting that few companies buy barley for export, so there is no competition, and traders quickly buy up the necessary volumes and reduce prices, since they usually sell no more than one or two vessels per month, which is only 30-80 thousand tons.

Barley exports from Ukraine in August remain low. In the first 22 days of August, only 247,000 tons were exported, and in total since the beginning of the 2025/26 season - 504,000 tons (which is half the corresponding figure of last year - 1.089 million tons).

High yields and good quality of malting barley contributed to an increase in supply, which led to the stabilization of malting barley prices at the level of 10,600-10,700 UAH/t delivered to the mill. Processors began to limit purchases against the background of active deliveries of malting barley to mills, as well as a decrease in malt prices due to an excellent malting barley harvest in the EU.