Russian grain terminals on the Azov and Black Seas have not resumed operations, but the Russian authorities are not going to negotiate

Successful Ukrainian drone attacks have virtually halted navigation through the Azov-Don Canal and the Kerch Strait since July 10, prompting ports in Azov, Rostov-on-Don, and Taganrog to halt grain shipments. Azov ports account for nearly 25% of Russia’s grain exports, while Black Sea ports account for over 50%.

As a result of a massive and successful strike on August 12, 2026, all three key grain terminals in the port of Novorossiysk were put out of action and completely stopped receiving and transshipment:

• "KSK" (GK "Delo") - stopped accepting road and rail transport and shipping by ship,
• Novorossiysk Grain Terminal (NZT) (Demetra Holding) — suffered damage and suspended operations,
• Novorossiysk Bread Products Plant (NKHP) (OZK) — suffered infrastructure damage and ceased operations.

The combined capacity of these three terminals is about 26.1 million tons per year (or 50% of all Russian wheat exports). And as of now, their full operation has not been restored.

According to ProZerno, purchase prices for grain in the Russian Federation have decreased by 20-25%. In the event of a complete blockade of exports via the Black Sea, the Russian Federation will miss out on 30-35 million tons of wheat to world markets this season, Forbes reports, citing sources in the Union of Grain Exporters and Producers. In the 2025/2026 MY, total exports of grain and leguminous crops from the Russian Federation exceeded 61 million tons, i.e. in the 2026/27 MY, the volume of exports may be halved.

However, local analysts believe that even the resumption of the Black Sea ports will not correct the situation with the blockade of Azov, and it will be impossible to fully compensate for supplies through Azov in the short term, and the lost volumes correspond to the total annual transshipment of all Black Sea terminals.

At the same time, the Russian authorities regularly refuse to discuss with partners the "air truce" proposed by Ukraine and local maritime or infrastructure agreements, demonstrating their unwillingness to compromise and believing that blocking exports from Ukraine will hit Ukrainian exporters harder.

But Ukrainian exporters have experience redirecting exports through European ports, although this significantly increases the cost of logistics, and for Russian farmers the only alternative is the Baltic ports, whose capacity is very limited.