Wheat prices in Ukraine fall under pressure from reduced yields and deteriorating quality, while global quotes remain stable pending the USDA report

Wheat stock quotes remain stable during the week in the absence of fundamental news and in anticipation of the August USDA report, but in Ukraine prices are being pressured by uncertainty about the quality and quantity of the new crop.

Significant precipitation in western and northern Ukraine has worsened grain quality and increased the share of feed and substandard grain, as well as reduced yield potential.

Export purchase prices for feed wheat decreased by another 200-300 UAH/t to 9600-9700 UAH/t or $203-206/t with delivery to Black Sea ports during the week, and the discount for wheat with "soot" grains increased to 60 UAH per 1 t/% above the permissible 10%, which is usually 500-1000 UAH/t.

Prices for food wheat remain at the level of 10,700–10,900 UAH/t or $226–230/t, but in the second half of August, we can expect an increase in the price of quality wheat due to increased demand from exporters and processors.

In the 2025/26 MY (as of August 11), Ukraine exported 1.23 million tons of wheat (compared to 2.6 million tons a year ago), but farmers again reduced wheat supplies due to quality problems, so the pace of exports will continue to decline.

As of August 7, 2025, 14.914 million tons of wheat were threshed in Ukraine from 3.713 million hectares (74% of the planned area) with a yield of 4.02 tons/hectare, while last year the average yield was 10% higher and amounted to 4.42 tons/hectare.

The APK-Inform agency lowered its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine in 2025 by 0.9 million tons to 19.7 million tons, while the USDA in July estimated it at 22 million tons.

The decrease in precipitation intensity has accelerated the wheat harvest in Ukraine and Europe, which, against the backdrop of an increase in the forecast for wheat production in the Russian Federation, keeps world wheat prices fairly stable.

During the week, September futures:

• decreased by 0.3% to $189.3/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• increased by 0.4% to $190.7/t - for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• increased by 0.7% to $212/t - for HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• decreased by 1.3% to €194.75/t or $226.4/t for wheat on the Euronext Paris exchange.

According to the state agency FranceAgriMer, as of August 4, winter wheat in France has been threshed on 94% of the area (85% last year), and the wheat harvest forecast may be increased.

IKAR analysts increased the forecast for the gross wheat harvest in the Russian Federation in the 2025/26 MY by 0.5 million tons to 84.5 million tons, and for exports by 0.5 million tons to 41.5 million tons, while the USDA estimates them at 83.5 and 46 million tons, respectively.

As of August 10, winter wheat in the US has been threshed on 90% of the area (92% last year and 91% on average for 5 years), and the number of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition increased by 2% to 49% per week (72% last year) due to heavy rainfall last week.

During July 31 - August 7, wheat exports from the US decreased by 47% compared to the previous week to 365.5 thousand tons, and in total since the beginning of the 2025/26 MY (June 1) amounted to 4.367 million tons, which is 2.4% more than a year ago, but the pace of exports is decreasing.

Today, the USDA will release the August wheat supply and demand balance, which is expected to lower the US harvest forecast and estimate global stocks, which will support quotes.

According to market operators, the Tunisian State Grain Agency (ODC) contracted about 75,000 tons of common wheat of any origin in an international tender on August 7 at a price of $262.5/ton C&F with delivery from September 10 to October 20, 2025.