Next season the balance of rapeseed in the EU will remain tense

Through drought conditions during the sowing of winter rapeseed in the EU in the current season will reduce its production compared to the previous MG to 3 million tonnes to 17 million tonnes, which will be a minimum over the past 13 years. As a result, the estimated USDA the import of rapeseeds will increase by 0.9 million tons to 5.1 million tons.

this season as of early November, the import of rapeseed in the EU in comparison with the same period in 2018 increased by 77% to 2.67 million tonnes, most of which is of Ukrainian origin. Ukraine grown from 3, 3 million tons of canola to export 2.8 million tonnes, of which at the beginning of November has shipped 2.55 million T.

it is unclear where the EU will buy in to next season for at least another 2.4 million tons of rapeseed, although some experts predict an increase in imports even up to 6 million T.

From Canada may be imported 1-1. 2 million t However, even for the low prices of canadian canola at the level of $350/t and significant amount of proposals, European manufacturers will be to buy it partially for the presence of GMOs, since sales of GMO-soymeal in the EU is prohibited.

Australia drought will reduce production of rapeseed to 2-2. 1 million MT, and exports to 1.6 million tonnes compared to 1.9 million tonnes last MY.

Despite the projected early in the season the deficit of rapeseed prices at Euronext has increased over this period by only 5% from 368 to 390 €/t And thanks to the low Euro price in dollars is almost equivalent to last year's level.

the Dry conditions in the period of sowing of winter rape under the harvest 2020 has prevented European and Ukrainian farmers significantly increase the acreage under oil, so the increased production remains in question.

European farmers, despite high prices for canola only slightly increased in comparison with the multi-year low the previous season, the acreage under rapeseed as a ban on the use of pesticides does not allow to obtain a good crop of canola.

Ukraine compared to last year, reduced acreage of rapeseed by 0.2 million hectares to 1.1 million hectares. But autumn moisture deficit of the crop is lost, and the other is in poor condition. An additional reason for the reduction in acreage were lower than last year, the price of rapeseed in Ukraine, despite rising prices in the EU, as well as new rules for reimbursement of VAT on exports of rapeseed in 2020 that will minimize the purchase by traders of rapeseed for the hryvnia and lead to lower prices, as has occurred with prices for soybeans.