USDA did not change the world corn balance much, but quotes rose in response to the decrease in US stocks

In the August WASDE report, USDA experts again lowered the forecast for the EU corn harvest, but increased production forecasts for the Russian Federation and Ukraine, so overall the world balance remained unchanged, but quotes in Chicago increased by 4.4% due to a significant increase in the export forecast and a decrease in the estimate of ending corn stocks in the US in both the 2025/26 MY and 2026/27 MY.

At the same time, the USDA reduced its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine by only 1 million tons, although the day before, their representative in Kyiv reduced his export estimate by 9 million tons.

December corn futures in Chicago rose 4.4% yesterday to $189.3/t (+4.3% since the July report), responding mainly to changes in the US corn balance.

The forecast for corn exports from the United States in 2025/26 MY has been increased by 1.86 million tons to 86.36 million tons (73 million tons in 2024/25 MY), and in 2026/27 MY - by 1.9 million tons to 83.19 million tons, which reduced the forecasts for ending corn stocks in 2025/26 MY by 1.9 million tons, and in 2026/27 MY - by 3.48 million tons.

At the same time, analysts did not expect such a sharp decrease in the estimate of corn yield in the US from 183 bushels/acre in July to 180.7 bushels/acre in August, and the harvest forecast remained unchanged due to a significant increase in the estimate of corn sowing areas in the US by 1.4 million acres to 96.7 million acres.

November corn futures in Paris rose by only 0.3% to €248/t or $286/t (+3.9% since the July report), as traders have already factored in a reduction in the harvest estimate to 51-52 million tons from local analysts.

In the updated world corn balance for the 2025/26 MY, USDA experts increased the forecast for the corn harvest in Brazil by 2 million tons to 140 (136) million tons, but left the harvest estimate in Argentina at 63 million tons (49 million tons in the 2024/25 MY), although the Rosario Grain Exchange increased its forecast by 2.5 million tons to 70.5 million tons, so a correction of the balance for the 2025/26 MY and an increase in the estimate of world stocks is possible next month.

The world corn balance for the 2026/27 MY compared to July estimates has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for initial stocks was left unchanged at 298.83 million tons (296.7 million tons in 2025/26 MY).
• The forecast for world corn production has been increased by 1.79 million tons to 1.2989 (1.3299) billion tons, including for Ukraine - by 1.8 million tons to 31.8 (30.9) million tons, the Russian Federation - by 1.4 million tons to 17.2 (14.8) million tons, the USA - by 0.33 million tons to 406.75 (432.3) million tons, which compensates for the decrease in the estimate for the EU by 3.58 million tons to 50.2 (56.8) million tons due to prolonged heat in France and Hungary.
• The estimate of world consumption has been increased by 2.56 million tonnes to 1.3230 billion tonnes (1.3278 billion tonnes), primarily for Brazil - by 2 million tonnes and the Russian Federation - by 1 million tonnes, which compensates for a reduction in consumption in the EU of 1.4 million tonnes.
• The forecast for world corn imports has been reduced by 0.27 million tons to 203.73 million tons (197.25 million tons), in particular for China - by 1 million tons to 5 (4) million tons, while for the EU the forecast has been increased by 1 million tons to 23.5 (18.5) million tons.
• The forecast for world corn exports has been increased by 0.6 million tons to 210.48 million tons (220.7 million tons), including for the USA - by 1.9 million tons to 83.19 (86.4) million tons, which compensates for the decrease for Ukraine by 1 to 22 (23) million tons.
• The estimate of world ending corn stocks has been reduced by 0.6 million tons to 274.66 million tons (298.8 in 2025/26 MY and 296.7 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for the USA - by 3.48 to 41.98 (49.4) million tons, for Brazil - by 1 to 10.1 (13.3) million tons, while for Ukraine the forecast has been increased by 2.8 to 24.86 (2.25) million tons.

Weather conditions in the US remain very favorable for the corn harvest, so against the backdrop of an increase in the estimated area sown, we can expect an increase in the estimated yield and production in the US in the coming months as the harvest progresses.

Export restrictions from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and the Russian Federation will be the main factors influencing prices in the near future.