FAS USDA lowered the forecast for corn exports from Ukraine by 39%, but stock market quotes remained unchanged

The representative of the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) in Kyiv, in his August report, reduced the forecast for corn exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 MY by 39% compared to July estimates, from 23 to 14 million tons, due to the suspension of exports from Black Sea ports due to increased Russian attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels in Ukrainian ports.

However, stock quotes in Chicago and Paris hardly reacted to this. December corn futures in Chicago closed yesterday unchanged at $181.8/t (-2.2% for the week, 0% for the month) against the background of a fairly good state of crops in the US and in anticipation of an increase in the US harvest forecast. Traders are waiting for the August USDA report, which will increase the US corn harvest forecast, as well as the forecast for world stocks due to an increase in the crop estimate in Brazil and Argentina in 2025/26 MY, where the harvest is completed.

November corn futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris rose 0.4% yesterday to €249.25/t or $288/t (+4.4% month-on-month), but the increase in corn supply from South America is still offsetting the reduction in supplies from Ukraine.

The halt in seaborne grain exports from Ukraine led to a sharp rise in stock market quotes in July and a drop in domestic corn prices in Ukraine. And while demand for the new crop remains quite high, buyers are increasingly skeptical that exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports will fully resume by the end of the year.

Export demand prices for feed corn in Ukraine remain at $190/t DAP - western border and UAH 8,500-9,000/t or $175-180/t with delivery to Danube ports. Such prices are declared for both the old and new harvests, but if the issue of unblocking sea exports is not resolved before the start of harvesting, domestic corn prices may decrease even more.