In 2026/27, FAO forecasts a 2% reduction in global grain production

Global grain production in the 2025/26 season, which is almost complete, increased by 6.1% compared to the previous season to 3.043 billion tons, primarily due to a sharp increase in the production of corn and other grain crops.

 

According to the FAO forecast, global grain consumption in 2025/26 MY will increase by 2.7% compared to the previous season to 2.952 billion tonnes, driven by strong consumption of rice and maize. Despite the increase in consumption, global ending grain stocks will also increase by 9.5% to 952.2 million tonnes, especially stocks of wheat, maize and rice.

 

The volume of world grain trade in the 2025/26 MY will increase by 4.8% compared to the previous season to 508.6 million tons, but the volume of rice trade will decrease.

 

In the 2026/27 MY, global grain production (including rice in terms of milled rice) will decrease by 2% compared to the previous season to 2.982 billion tons, with the largest reduction in wheat production and the smallest reduction in corn and barley.

 

Global total grain consumption in 2026/27 MY will grow by 1% to 2.969 billion tonnes, and feed consumption by 0.5%, with corn and barley consumption increasing and wheat and rice decreasing.

 

Global grain stocks in 2026/27 MY will decrease by 0.3% to 949 million tonnes, as increases in wheat and barley stocks will be offset by decreases in rice and sorghum stocks. The ratio of grain stocks to consumption in 2026/27 MY will remain at the previous season's level of 31.7%.

 

After growing by 4.8% in 2025/26, world grain trade is projected to decline by 0.3% in 2026/27 to 507.2 million tonnes, primarily due to reduced trade in barley and wheat. Meanwhile, rice and corn trade are projected to grow by 1.4% and 3.9%, respectively, in 2026/27.