Sugar prices rise to 19-month high as harvest delays in Brazil

The rainy season in Brazil started a little earlier than usual this year. This helps to accumulate moisture and start planting corn and soybeans early, but at the same time delays the harvesting and processing of sugarcane, supporting world sugar prices.

During trading on October 6, March cane sugar futures No. 11 in New York reached a 19-month high of $460/t, adding 11.2% for the week and month and 30% for the year.

 

The main factor behind the increase in quotes was the forecast of more rain in Brazil over the next two weeks. They could further delay sugarcane processing and reduce sugar production in the central-southern region of the country below 38 million tons.

Expectations for sugar production in Brazil have deteriorated markedly in recent months. As recently as late July, a Reuters poll had predicted production at around 40 million tonnes, so the current estimate is already at least 2 million tonnes lower.

 

December white sugar No. 5 futures in London rose 9% in a week to a 15-month high of $556/t (+5.9% in the month and +24% in the year) and are trading at their highest levels since late 2024.

Additional support for the European sugar market is provided by reduced harvests in France and Germany. Beet sugar production in Germany in the 2026/27 MY is forecast at 3.33 million tons compared to 4.421 million tons the previous season.

 

At the same time, demand in the physical market remains weak, so some traders consider the recent rise in futures excessive. This may limit further price increases if weather risks in Brazil do not increase.

According to the ISO forecast, in the 2026/27 season, global sugar production will decrease by only 1% year-on-year to 180.1 million tons, and the global balance will form a deficit of about 200 thousand tons after a surplus last season.

 

El Niño is creating an additional speculative factor for the global sugar market. Its possible impact on rainfall and sugarcane yields in India and Thailand will remain a key factor for quotes in the coming months.