Wheat prices in Ukraine are rising due to supply shortages, although stock quotes remain under pressure from significant inventories

Frosts continue to delay grain deliveries to Ukrainian ports, keeping purchase prices high. In addition, some experts believe that severe January frosts could have damaged up to 20% of winter crop crops, especially in the east and south, where snow cover was low, which is also keeping farmers from selling.

During the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine increased by 50-100 UAH/t to 10,400-10,550 UAH/t or $214-216/t for food wheat and 10,100-10,200 UAH/t or $206-208/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports. Cold weather and snowfall will continue to limit wheat deliveries to ports during the week, so traders will be forced to pay premiums for fast deliveries.

Wheat exports from Ukraine are very sluggish. In the first 7 months of the 2025/26 MY, Ukraine exported 8.5 million tons of wheat, which is 30% lower than last year's pace. This may increase stocks at the beginning of the new season due to the seasonal spring decline in demand on world markets.

In all winter wheat growing regions in the US, fairly warm weather has set in with temperatures of 0-10 degrees, which, against the backdrop of rains forecast this week, is increasing pressure on quotes ahead of today's updated world balance from the USDA. Traders expect further declines in export forecasts, in particular for Ukraine and the EU, and an increase in world stocks at the end of the 2025/26 MY.

Quotes were not supported by data on a sharp increase in wheat exports from the United States during January 29 - February 5 by 75% to 580 thousand tons, while total exports in the 2025/26 season reached 17.33 million tons, which is 18.4% higher than last year's pace.

March wheat futures on exchanges demonstrated the following dynamics during the week:

• increased by 0.4% to $194.3/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• decreased by 1% to $194.3/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• increased by 0.5% to $210/t - for HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• decreased by 2.1% to 189.5€/t or 225.6 $/t for wheat on Euronext in Paris.

If the weather in the US, EU and Ukraine does not bring surprises, the markets will move on to forecasts of the new crop and estimates of the old stock, which will increase the pressure on quotes.