Corn prices in Ukraine have fallen below the psychological level of 5,000 UAH/t, but rising quotes in Paris are limiting the fall

The increase in the cost of road and rail logistics for corn deliveries to Danube ports or western border terminals, caused by delayed unloading and lack of free space, continues to reduce domestic corn prices in Ukraine, which have already fallen below the psychological level of UAH 5,000/t.

As of October 12, 3.486 million tons of corn were threshed from 589.4 thousand hectares or 13% of the area in Ukraine, with an average yield of 5.91 tons/hectare. The market is already feeling supply pressure, but farmers are still trying to sell the first harvested batches at high prices.

Corn exports from Ukraine for 12 days of October amounted to only 78 thousand tons (compared to 223 thousand tons in October 2025), and in total since the beginning of the season reached 2 million tons (1.138 million tons for the same period last year) due to active shipments in July and August.

Over the week, corn purchase prices in Ukraine decreased by another 300–500 UAH/t to 4,500–5,000 UAH/t on EXW-elevator terms. At the same time, corn demand prices with delivery to Danube terminals fell by $10/t to $160–165/t or 8,000 UAH/t, and prices for November deliveries are announced at $150/t.

Demand prices for corn delivered to western terminals remain at 8,000–8,500 UAH/t or $165–175/t, but prices for February deliveries are $185–190/t.

The decrease in the forecast for corn production in the EU by 2.6 to 48 (56.8) million tons due to a 38% decrease in production in France due to drought continues to increase quotes, which is also supported by a further decline in the euro against the dollar.

March corn futures in Paris rose 3.2% in the week to €280.75/t or $314/t (+7.3% month-on-month), while November futures, which expire on October 25, rose to €303/t, indicating a supply shortage in October.

The increase in the USDA experts' forecast for US corn production caused December corn futures in Chicago to fall by 4.6% in a week to $189/t, which is 11.5% lower than last month's level.

US corn prices are also being pressured by large early-season stocks and very favorable corn planting weather conditions in Brazil, which have already led to higher production forecasts .

As of October 11, corn has been harvested in 33% of the area in the US (39% on average over 4 years), but dry and warm weather forecast for the next 7-10 days will accelerate harvesting, which will increase pressure on prices.

Favorable rainfall continues in Brazil and Argentina, which encourages farmers to expand their planting areas and creates good starting conditions for crops.

China has significantly reduced its forecast for corn feed consumption in the 2026/27 MY from 209.6 to 200.5 million tons amid the active use of alternative feed components, in particular soybean meal, amid increased imports and processing of soybeans in recent years.

The decrease in demand from China will offset the increase in demand from the EU, so the US will increase supplies to the EU in the coming months, which may significantly reduce EU demand for Ukrainian corn.