USDA experts sharply increased forecasts for global corn production and stocks, especially for the US, which caused the price to fall by 4.5%

In the October WASDE report, USDA experts unexpectedly for analysts greatly improved the corn balance for the US, which caused the world corn balance to improve and caused the quotations in Chicago to collapse.

The main changes in the world balance occurred due to adjustments to estimates for the USA, although in the September report the USDA, on the contrary, significantly reduced its estimates . At the same time, the USDA did not change the forecast for corn exports from Ukraine at all, although shipments from Black Sea ports have been practically blocked since July 22.

The forecast for US corn beginning stocks was raised by 4.4 million tonnes to 53.22 million tonnes (39.4 million tonnes in 2025/26 MY) based on data from the Grain Stocks Report as of September 30. The forecast for US corn production was sharply raised by 5.95 million tonnes (although it was reduced by the same amount in September) to 407.28 (430.9) million tonnes due to an increase in the yield estimate from 178.5 bushels/acre to 181.2 bushels/acre, while analysts expected a decrease to 177.7 bushels/acre. The forecast for the area to be harvested was left at 88.5 million acres.

On Friday after the report was released, December corn futures in Chicago fell by 4.5% to $188.9/t (-10.5% since the September report), completely erasing the August increase, and November corn futures in Paris fell by 0.3% to €273.25/t or $309.4/t (+3.6% in euros and +1.1% in dollars due to the fall in the euro).

In the world corn balance for 2025/26 MY, USDA experts increased the harvest estimate in Argentina by 1 million tons to 64 million tons (49 million tons in 2024/25 MY), although local analysts predict it at 70-71 million tons. At the same time, the harvest estimate for the USA has been reduced by 1.4 million tons to 430.9 million tons. However, due to the overestimation of consumption, the forecast for final world stocks has been increased.

The world corn balance for the 2026/27 MY compared to September estimates has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was increased by 5.78 million tons to 307.16 million tons (295.64 million tons in 2025/26 MY), in particular for the USA - by 4.4 million tons to 53.22 (39.4) million tons and Argentina - by 1 million tons to 5.7 million tons.
• The forecast for world corn production has been increased by 2.8 million tons to 1.2938 (1.3306) billion tons, in particular for the USA - by 5.95 to 407.28 (430.9) million tons, which compensates for the decrease in the forecast for the EU by 2.6 to 48 (56.8) million tons due to a 38% decrease in production in France due to drought.
• The estimate of world consumption was left unchanged at 1.3204 (1.3191) billion tons, but an increase in consumption in the USA by 2.54 million tons to 330.3 (330.78) million tons offsets a decrease in consumption in the EU by 2.4 million tons to 71 (74.6) million tons.
• The forecast for world corn imports is raised by 0.27 million tonnes to 203.38 million tonnes (198.38 million tonnes) due to increased imports to the Philippines and Egypt, but the estimate for Vietnam is lowered.
• The forecast for world corn exports has been increased by 0.64 million tons to 210.72 (215.96) million tons, in particular for the USA - by 0.63 to 83.82 (87.11) million tons.
• The estimate of world ending corn stocks has been increased by 8.3 million tons to 280.4 million tons (307.16 in 2025/26 MY and 296.7 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for the USA - by 7.18 to 46.97 (53.2) million tons.

The global corn market remains under pressure from increased supply from the USA and favorable weather for sowing corn and soybeans in South America, but the main blow to prices will only be dealt by the unblocking of exports from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and the Russian Federation.