Corn prices in Ukraine under pressure after Chicago quotations collapse by 4.4%

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a report on grain stocks as of September 1, 2026, the data of which came as a surprise to corn traders and caused a sharp collapse in stock prices.

 

According to the USDA, US corn stocks increased by 35% compared to last year to 53.2 million tons, compared to 39.4 million tons a year earlier, and exceeded average market expectations and the USDA's August estimate by 4.3 million tons.

 

Soybean stocks fell 3% to 8.58 million tonnes from 8.85 million tonnes last year, 0.6 million tonnes below average market expectations. Wheat stocks were 50.2 million tonnes, in line with market expectations and 14% below last year's 58 million tonnes.

 

December corn futures in Chicago fell 4.4% yesterday to $196.8/t (-9% month-on-month, +8.5% year-on-year) on the back of higher inventories and forecasts of dry and warm weather that will help accelerate the harvest.

As of September 27, 18% of the US corn crop has been threshed, which is in line with the average for the past 5 years.

The fall in Chicago prices has also increased pressure on the European market. November corn futures in Paris fell by 0.8% yesterday, and over the past 7 days have lost 3.8% to €264.25/t or $300/t (+2.1% for the month, +33% for the year).

 

The European Commission has lowered its forecast for EU corn production in the 2026/27 MY from 50.1 to 48.3 million tons, and left the import forecast at 25 million tons compared to 19.3 million tons last season.

As of September 27, EU corn imports in the 2026/27 MY reached 4.96 million tonnes, including 2.07 million tonnes from the US, 1.46 million tonnes from Ukraine and 1.2 million tonnes from Brazil. It is expected that US corn supplies may increase due to lower prices and the ability to ship large consignments by sea.

 

Corn exports from Ukraine for the 28 days of September amounted to 282 thousand tons compared to 40 thousand tons in September 2025, and since the beginning of the season - 1.9 million tons compared to 913 thousand tons a year earlier.

At the same time, as of September 1, 2026, corn stocks in Ukraine amounted to 2.8 million tons, which is 2.1 times higher than last year's level and creates additional pressure on domestic prices.

 

Over the week, corn demand prices in Ukraine decreased by 100–500 UAH/t to 5,000–5,800 UAH/t on EXW-elevator terms in the eastern and central regions. In the western regions, demand remains at the level of 6,000–6,500 UAH/t.

Demand prices for corn loaded into Eurocars at the western borders in October–December decreased to €160–165/t or $180–186/t due to a shortage of available Eurotrains and exhaustion of supply quotas.

Prices with delivery to the port of Constanta have decreased to $245–250/t. Given the cost of delivery to the port at $120–140/t, prices for corn on FCA terms, loaded onto a wagon or car, have dropped to $110–120/t.

 

As of September 28, only 3% of the corn area in Ukraine has been threshed, from which 789 thousand tons have been harvested at a yield of 5.15 t/ha. However, the pace of harvesting will accelerate in the near future, as dry and warm weather is forecast for 10–14 days.

 

Prolonged rainfall in Brazil and Argentina is helping to accelerate corn and soybean planting, build up moisture reserves, and could spur an expansion in planted areas. This, along with accelerated harvests in the US and Ukraine, will put additional pressure on world corn prices over the coming month.