Corn prices, expect a new balance USDA

the Markets for corn and other agricultural products remain under pressure epidemic coronavirus, which led to the reduction of oil consumption and the closure of the largest enterprises in China. Experts are now trying to assess the possible reduction in the consumption of cereals and oilseeds in the country.

 

Tuesday will be the USDA report released in February with an updated balance sheet for corn. It is expected that the forecast for global production remains unchanged, since the Brazil and Argentina crop forecasts remain at 101 and 50 million tons respectively. The main attention is riveted to the balance of corn in the US, where previously expected to increase domestic processing to enhance the supply in China and a slight reduction in exports.

 

Experts warned the USDA that they will not take into account the possible increased exports of corn, ethanol and DDGS after the signing of the 1st part of the trade agreement with China for force majeure associated with the epidemic coronavirus.

 

Since the beginning of the season, the United States exported 22.7 million tons of maize, accounting for 50% of the USDA projected 45 million tons, whereas last year at that date had contracted 61% of total exports in 2018/19 MG amounted to 52.4 million MT of corn.

 

Markets on Friday closed with optimistic mood relatively quickly stop the spread coronavirus and the vaccine for it, so the March futures on corn remained at the level of 150 $/t Prices have supported the increase in the demand from recyclers of South Korea and Vietnam in the recovery of pigs after an outbreak of ASF in the past year.

 

In Ukraine, purchasing prices for maize fell in port before 170-171 $/t or 4950-5050 UAH/t due to lower demand prices for March delivery to $180/t FOB. Traders expect an increase in supply of South American corn from the new harvest can lower the prices for April delivery up to 175 $/t FOB.

 

Ukraine per week reduced the export of corn by 45% to 662 thousand tons, indicating a decrease in export demand. Since the beginning of the season exported 16.8 million tons, which is 27% higher than the corresponding period last year. However, before the end of the season still need to export 14 million tons, while strong competition from Argentina and Brazil greatly lowers prices in the EU and Asia.

 

On the black sea corn market competition of Ukraine with Russia, which in the current season increased corn export compared to the previous MG 19% to 2 mln t