Rye prices in Ukraine are breaking records due to a deficit that will persist in the 2025/26 season

At the end of the 2024/25 season, rye prices in Ukraine reached record levels — 13,000–14,000 UAH/t delivered to the mill. For comparison, in the same period last year, prices were 6,000–7,000 UAH/t . The cost of Ukrainian rye flour increased to 18,000 UAH/t compared to 10,000 UAH/t in May 2024. And products made from imported raw materials already cost about 20,000 UAH/t .

According to the Union of Flour Mills of Ukraine, there is a 100% shortage of rye in Ukraine , which will most likely continue in the 2025/26 season. This was stated by the director of the Union, Rodion Rybchinsky, in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine, noting that rye flour is already partially imported from the Baltics (at a price of about UAH 20,000/t), and some mills process Polish rye to meet demand.

Reasons for the shortage:

– Low yield of rye (up to 4 t/ha) compared to wheat (6 t/ha);
– Farmers' reluctance to sow rye due to its economic unattractiveness;
– Lost imports from Belarus , which previously compensated for the shortage of raw materials;
– Lack of a foreign market — rye is not an export crop, and demand for it exists only within the country.

Consequences:

According to Rybchinsky, the rye shortage will not only lead to an increase in the price of rye bread , but also to the fact that many producers will simply stop baking it until the new harvest appears.

Forecast:

In the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine will live in a deficit and will import rye at European prices. This, in turn, should stimulate farmers to return to growing the crop more actively. It is expected that in the 2026/27 marketing year, farmers will increase the area under rye , which will gradually stabilize the situation on the market.