Wheat prices on stock exchanges continued to fall last week, and export demand in Ukraine is practically non-existent

The continuation of sea exports of wheat from Russian Black Sea ports and the increase in the supply of the new crop are increasing the pressure on stock market quotes for wheat, which have not yet reacted to the cessation of sea exports from Ukraine. So far, the supply of wheat on the world market is quite significant, so although prices are growing at international tenders , they have not reached the predicted $300/t, as would have happened if exports from the Russian Federation and Ukraine had stopped.

During the week, September wheat futures fell:

• by 1.4% to $239.2/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+ 5.7% per month),
• by 1.7% to $263.5/t - for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+10.3%),
• by 1.6% to $255.4/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+10.3%),
• by 1.6% to €225.75/t or $260.4/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (+12%).

As of August 2, winter wheat in the US has been harvested on 86% of the area (86% on average), and spring wheat has been harvested on 5% of the area, and the number of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition has increased by 2% to 55% per week (48% last year).

Wheat exports from the US since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY (June 1) amounted to 2.9 million tons, which is 27.4% lower than the previous season and indicates a decrease in demand for expensive American wheat.

Constant Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure and ships continue, so wheat export purchases are practically stopped, and only a part of the Danube ports are trying to work. Low water levels in the Danube reduce ship loads by 30-50%, which also increases freight costs .

During the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine with delivery to Black Sea ports were almost not declared, and prices with delivery to Danube ports decreased by 500-800 UAH/t, in particular for food wheat - by 500-600 UAH/t to 8200-8900 UAH/t or $160-175/t, and for feed wheat - by 400-500 UAH/t to 7900-8200 UAH/t or $155-160/t.

As of August 3, 12.51 million tons of wheat were threshed in Ukraine from 2.74 million hectares or 53.4% of the projected area, with an average yield of 4.57 tons/hectare. Therefore, the UZA increased the harvest forecast to 23.7 million tons (compared to 22.5 million tons last year), and believes that exports could also grow from 14 to 18 million tons if it were not for the blockade of ports.

Demand for food wheat at grain elevators in western Ukraine has increased somewhat, as traders have found the opportunity to deliver grain by rail to the port of Constanta in Romania. Currently, grain elevators are offering UAH 7,000-7,200/t for food wheat and UAH 6,000-6,700/t for feed wheat.

This week, we expect continued attacks on the port infrastructure of both the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which will contribute to a speculative increase in quotes and, possibly, will force international organizations, in particular the UN, to increase pressure on the Russian Federation to stop shelling civilian vessels in the Black Sea.