Despite a large barley harvest, Canada faces a growing shortage of brewing grains

According to the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre (CMBTC), Canada will harvest 9.7 million tonnes of barley in the 2026/27 MY, which will be in line with last year's level, but the supply of malting barley will decrease to 2 million tonnes compared to 3 million tonnes last year and 2.5 million tonnes on average over many years, as heavy rains in August and September caused grain germination and sharply reduced quality.

 

Because of this, a significant part of the harvest will be used for feed or sold as raw materials of lower brewing quality, which are purchased by some importers from China.

 

Sprouted grain requires rapid processing, making it difficult to export. Due to the reduced supply of quality malting barley, its prices have started to increase, while feed barley prices remain under pressure from falling US corn prices. However, the increase in malting barley prices is limited by low demand for malt caused by a decrease in global beer consumption.

 

At the same time, global demand for feed barley remains quite high, primarily due to China. According to USDA estimates, in 2025/26 MY, global barley imports amounted to about 35 million tons, which was the second highest figure in history after 37 million tons in the 2020/21 season. Moreover, China increased imports to 14 million tons (which exceeded 40% of total world imports) against the background of restrictions on corn imports and the search for alternative feed components. The second largest importer was Saudi Arabia, which purchased 4.7 million tons of barley, while Turkey significantly increased purchases due to historically low domestic harvests.

 

According to the USDA forecast, in the 2026/27 MY, world barley imports will decrease to almost 30 million tons, in particular to China - to 13 million tons, although the country will remain the world's largest barley importer. The decrease in global demand is also due to the resumption of production in Turkey, some countries of the Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, the reduction in the harvest in some exporting countries and the blocking of sea exports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation limit the supply of grain on the world market. Therefore, in the current season, the main world barley exporter will be Australia, which plans to harvest a record harvest.

 

The Canadian barley market is set to see mixed price trends in the new season. Malting barley prices will be supported by tight supply, while feed barley prices will be pressured by a large harvest and reduced global imports. Canadian exporters are already assessing the quality of the new crop, including germination and grain quality, to estimate malting grain volumes.

 

Due to the limited supply of quality barley, global importers may increase purchases from alternative suppliers, including Australia, France, and Argentina.