Rising logistics costs and falling sunflower and soybean prices are putting pressure on rapeseed prices in Ukraine

The rise in oil prices above $100/barrel has significantly supported oilseed prices, especially rapeseed, but the improved forecast for the global oilseed harvest to a record level limits further price growth.

The forecast for global rapeseed production in 2026/27 MY has been increased by 1.86 million tons to a record 99.97 million tons (96.04 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 86.28 million tons in 2024/25 MY), due to an increase in the harvest forecast in Australia by 1 million tons to 7.8 (7.68 in 2025/26) million tons, the Russian Federation - by 0.6, to 6.8 (5.5) million tons, as well as in Kazakhstan and Uruguay, which compensated for a decrease in the forecast for the EU by 0.2 million tons to 20.15 (20.66) million tons. At the same time, the forecasts for Ukraine and Canada were left unchanged.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange fell 2.6% to CAD 818/t on Friday, but rose yesterday to CAD 823/t or $591/t (unchanged for the week and month). Prices in Canada are mostly supported by rainy and cold weather, which is delaying harvest. But this week temperatures will rise and precipitation will stop, which will allow for the next 7-10 days to harvest without losses.

November rapeseed futures in Paris fell 0.6% to €552/t or $638/t (+2% month-on-month), although they were supported by rising oil prices.

Prices for European unrefined rapeseed oil for October and November delivery have increased by €10-20/t to €1,240-1,250/t FOB Netherlands, but for December delivery they are €1,220-1,230/t, indicating expectations of further price declines under pressure from increased supply.

In 10 days of September, Ukraine exported 124 thousand tons of rapeseed (292.6 thousand tons in August) and 53.7 thousand tons of rapeseed oil, which confirms the predicted high export rates.

At the same time, the cost of logistics continues to grow, in particular, the cost of deliveries by dump trucks to Romanian ports increased by 10-20% per month, and the cost of delivery by Eurotrain from the Ukrainian border to Germany increased by 30% in October compared to July-August, and is likely to continue to grow in November and December.

Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine increased by $10-20/t per week to $490-510/t or UAH 2,200-22,500/t with delivery to Danube ports, and $500-520/t or UAH 2,200-23,000/t with delivery to western border terminals, but prices with delivery to the port of Constanta (Romania) by dump trucks remained at $590-600/t amid increasing queues for receiving Romanian, Moldovan and Ukrainian grain.

Demand for rapeseed from processors continues to decline amid a sharp drop in sunflower prices to the level of 18,500-19,000 UAH/t, which makes sunflower processing more profitable, so prices for rapeseed (with an oil content of 44%) decreased by 500 UAH/t to 19,000-21,000 UAH/t with delivery to factories during the week.

Ukrainian farmers should increase their rapeseed export sales in September, using cheap and available logistics by road and rail to EU ports and factories.