Oilseed prices fall under pressure as USDA experts raise global production forecasts to record levels

The sharp increase in oil prices remains the main driver of oilseed price increases in recent months, but the record oilseed production forecast for the 2026/27 MY will lead to an oversupply of markets and a price pullback.

 

In a September report, USDA experts again increased their forecast for global oilseed production in the 2026/27 MY, in particular the rapeseed and sunflower harvest, which led to a decrease in rapeseed and soybean quotes on Friday.

 

The overall world balance of oilseeds for the 2026/27 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for global oilseed production has been increased by 2.44 million tons to a record 723.46 million tons, which will exceed the 2025/26 MY figure by 22.42 million tons - 701.04 million tons (686.96 million tons in 2024/25 MY, 657.74 million tons in 2023/24 MY), due to an increase in rapeseed production forecasts by 1.88 to a record 99.97 million tons and sunflower - by 1 to 63.65 million tons.
• The forecast for global oilseed processing has been increased by 2.1 million tons to 611.6 million tons (591.73 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 568.95 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 543.74 million tons in 2023/24 MY) due to increased processing of sunflower, soybean and rapeseed.
• The estimate of global ending oilseed stocks has been increased by 0.34 million tons to 146.64 million tons (145.86 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 144.4 million tons in 2024/25 MY, 136.1 million tons in 2023/24 MY).

 

The forecast for world rapeseed production in 2026/27 MY has been increased by 1.86 million tons to a record 99.97 million tons (96.04 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 86.28 million tons in 2024/25 MY), due to an increase in the harvest forecast in Australia by 1 million tons to 7.8 (7.68 in 2025/26) million tons, the Russian Federation - by 0.6, to 6.8 (5.5) million tons, as well as in Kazakhstan and Uruguay, which compensated for a decrease in the forecast for the EU by 0.2 million tons to 20.15 (20.66) million tons. At the same time, the forecasts for Ukraine and Canada were left unchanged.

 

The forecast for rapeseed imports to the EU has been increased by 0.7 million tonnes to 6.55 (6.95) million tonnes, and the forecast for exports from Australia has also been increased by 0.7 to 6 million tonnes and from the Russian Federation by 0.15 to 1.45 million tonnes.

 

On Friday, after the release of the updated balance, November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell by 2.6% to 818 CAD/t or 590 $/t (+2.9% for the month), and November rapeseed futures in Paris fell by 1.3% to 550.75 €/t or 638 $/t (+2.6% for the month).

 

Recall that November oil futures rose by 20% in a month amid the renewed blockade of tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

 

The forecast for global sunflower production has been increased by 1 million tons to a record 63.65 million tons (55.16 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 53 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for the Russian Federation - by 0.3 to 21 million tons (17.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 16.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY), for the EU - by 0.23 million tons to 9.725 (8.63 and 8.65) million tons, for Kazakhstan - by 0.3 million tons to a record 2.7 million tons (2.4 million tons last year). The forecasts for sunflower production for Ukraine have been left unchanged - at the level of 13 million tons (11 million tons and 13 million tons in previous seasons) and for Argentina - 8 (7.5) million tons.

 

In Ukraine, sunflower prices fell by another UAH 6,000-8,000/t to UAH 18,500-20,000/t with delivery to the plant in a month under the pressure of the halt in sea exports and new attacks by Russian aggressors on oil extraction plants inside the country, which reduces domestic demand.

 

The global soybean production forecast is raised by 0.1 million tonnes to a record 442.35 million tonnes (429.4 million tonnes in 2025/26 MY and 428 million tonnes in 2024/25 MY), with the global balance largely unchanged compared to August, July and June. The US production forecast is raised by 0.4 million tonnes to 123.4 (116) million tonnes, offsetting a 0.5 million tonnes reduction in India to 11 (11) million tonnes.

 

The forecast for soybean harvest areas in the US was increased by 0.1 million acres compared to August estimates, and the forecast for its yield was increased by 0.1 bushel/acre to 52.8 bushel/acre, which surprised analysts who were expecting a decrease in the forecast for yield and production in the US.

 

After the report was released, November soybean futures in Chicago fell 2.8% to $476.4/t, but remain 8.9% above the level after the August report.

 

High oil prices and the blocking of exports from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and the Russian Federation remain the main factors supporting oilseed prices, so if negotiations begin with Iran or the Russian Federation to stop the strikes and de-escalate, oil and oilseed prices may sharply decline, so it is worth actively selling oilseeds now, taking advantage of high prices.