Ukrainian market review from Spike Brokers

As of September 11, 29.15 million tons of grain and oilseed crops were harvested in Ukraine (30.08 million tons on this date last year), in particular: wheat - 22.2 (21.9) million tons, barley - 5.3 (5.5) million tons, rapeseed - 3.2 (3.4) million tons, sunflower - 0.8853 (2.97) million tons, soybeans - 0.384 (1.102) million tons.

Exports of agricultural products in September amounted to 1.4 million tons (1.7 million tons in September 2024), including: wheat - 900 (801) thousand tons, rapeseed - 53 (250) thousand tons, corn - 0 (138) thousand tons, barley - 117 (51) thousand tons, soybeans - 31 (56) thousand tons, rapeseed oil - 30 (25) thousand tons.

 

In September, Ukraine did not export corn , as the harvest is delayed and the residues are almost non-existent. Currently, 192 thousand tons of corn have been threshed from 1% of the area with a yield of 3.55 tons/ha, while last year at this time from 6% of the area 1.1 million tons were harvested with a yield 18% higher.

 

In Ukrainian ports, corn for delivery in October was traded at $208/t, while spot deliveries were charged an additional $10/t. For deliveries in November-January to the western border, they offer €184-186/t FCA Chop, which is €225/t in Northern Italy.

 

There is still a shortage of quality corn in Italy. Processors are not buying grain from Brazil due to the high content of mycotoxins. Therefore, prices in the ports of Ravenna and Venice have exceeded €250/t FCA.

 

In the 2025/26 MY, Ukraine harvested 22.2 million tons of wheat . In September, 900 thousand tons were exported (801 thousand tons last year). Over the month, prices for food wheat fell to $217-218/ton, while for feed wheat they remain at $204-205/ton on the spot. Processors offer $8-10/ton more for quality wheat than exporters, which makes the domestic market more attractive for producers.

 

As of September 11, Ukraine harvested 885,000 tons of sunflower (3 million tons on this date last year) with a yield of 1.55 tons/hectare, which is 21% lower than last year. Processors have half the stocks they had last year, which is forcing them to step up purchases. Over the week, purchase prices have risen to $690/ton including VAT. In northern European ports, the spot premium for sunflower oil exceeds $100/ton, which further supports prices in Ukraine.

 

In the first week of September, Ukraine exported only 53,000 tons of rapeseed (250,000 tons at this time last year), as customs require payment of duties and there is no mechanism to confirm its own production. Against this background, processors reduced prices by $5/ton to $570-583/ton excluding VAT during the week.

 

According to market estimates, this year's rapeseed exports and foreign exchange earnings from its sales will be at least 40% lower than last year.

 

The soybean market also remains under pressure from uncertainty following the imposition of tariffs, which is increasing pressure on prices. Producers are waiting for a mechanism to cancel or refund the tariffs, so they have stopped sales. According to forecasts, soybean exports and foreign exchange earnings will be 30% lower than last year as a result of the imposition of tariffs.