Ukrainian market review from Spike brokers

Rising oil prices have forced funds to turn their attention to grain markets, with May and December SWOT corn futures hitting local highs. Fundamentals remain mixed. U.S. exports are ahead of expectations, and ethanol demand is supporting prices. However, Brazil plans to sharply increase its export rate from April, which is currently below last year's. Argentina is ramping up its harvest, so competition in the market will soon intensify.

 

Ukraine exported 1.8 million tons of corn between March 1 and 19, but mainly to price-sensitive markets. Turkey purchased a third of the volume, while Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain increased their purchases.

 

Traders have activated forward purchases of corn of the 2026 harvest. In the direction of FCA Chop, 30 thousand tons were contracted for delivery in November - May at a price of 188-190 €/ton. In the direction of SRT - ports of Odessa region, the price was 210 $/ton. At the same time, the old harvest is traded at 212-215 $/ton.

 

The difference between SWOT and export prices persists because importers are not willing to raise prices in the absence of a physical shortage in the market.

 

Wheat prices rose along with corn prices, following energy markets. Rising fertilizer costs will reduce yields in the southern US states, which supports prices. At the same time, the global balance does not look tense. Wheat production in the Russian Federation, India and Australia will grow, while American production remains uncompetitive in most tenders.

 

In March, Ukraine exported 388 thousand tons of wheat, 40% of which went to Algeria, as well as to Egypt, Israel, and Tunisia (markets with strong international competition).

 

Prices for domestic 11.5% wheat remain at $220-222/t, for feed – $213-215/t. The physical market operates in the execution mode. Forward prices for 11.5% wheat are $225/t, for feed – $218/t at CPT – Black Sea ports. Some agricultural producers take advantage of the high price level and fix sales.

 

Purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine increased to $703-705/t CPT in a week, while prices for sunflower oil on FOB EU (the main sales market) fell by $40/t to $1,440-1,445/t, which forced processors to buy more cautiously. Competition with cheap soybean and palm oils is intensifying on the global vegetable oil market.

 

EU rapeseed prices have turned downward. On Friday, MATIF futures fell by €10/t to €502/t (old crop) and €491/t (new crop), indicating no shortage of supply. Ukraine continues to export rapeseed, but mainly to Germany. Traders are not yet contracting new crop rapeseed, assessing the balance of the rapeseed and vegetable oil markets.

 

Export prices for soybeans in Ukraine remain at $448/t CPT, while processors are offering up to $484/t including VAT due to rising prices for soybean meal, although soybean oil prices remain under pressure from strong competition. Exports of soybeans are directed exclusively to the EU, mainly to Germany, and of meal to China.