Ukrainian market review from Spike brokers

Automotive exports in January were very weak and amounted to only 190 thousand tons, of which traditionally 90% were processed products - sunflower and soybean oil, meal and pulp. The share of cereals does not exceed 10% due to the ban on grain imports to neighboring EU countries and the active use of rail transport for deliveries to Italy. The largest export destinations remain Poland, Hungary and Romania. Despite the reduction in volumes, automotive exports remain critically important for the supply of goods with high added value, fast contracts and niche customers.

 

Railway exports in January increased by 19% compared to December to 2.2 million tons, which is 12% lower than the 2025 figure. The average daily transfer of grain through western crossings decreased by 7% compared to the end of December to 172 weights/day. Of these, Hungary provides a stable 57.3 weights/day, Slovakia - 24.1 weights/day (of which 3.6 on broad gauge), Poland - 9 weights/day, Romania - the lowest volume of 4.9 weights/day. During the week, the accumulation of grain in front of the border amounted to 258 weights, which indicates synchronization of supply, reloading and clearance. The rate of passage of cargo through crossings depends on the weather, customs clearance and queues with empty wagons.

 

The ports of the Odessa region remain leaders in grain exports. The average daily loading of wagons for the week increased to 1,150 tons/day, and unloading - to 1,163 tons/day. Cargo stocks in the ports amount to over 930 thousand tons, of which 680 thousand tons are at the berths. TIS, OPZ and Risoil are the most active. Port operations are being resumed, despite the weather and threats. Exports through the Danube ports are much smaller, mainly rapeseed or meal.

 

Corn prices rose by $2/t to $209-210/t CPT port in the week, although demand for February is partially closed. Physical export rates are high, logistics are stable, and the situation in South America may lead to price increases.

 

In Argentina, the number of corn crops in good condition in January fell from 82% to 46% due to drought. Despite this, March SWOT futures are trading at 429-433 c/bush.

 

From January 1 to 29, Ukraine exported 2.66 million tons of corn, of which 625.1 thousand tons to Turkey, 606.7 thousand tons to Italy, 280.7 thousand tons to Spain, 239.3 thousand tons to Egypt, 229.3 thousand tons to Tunisia, 133.9 thousand tons to the Netherlands, 88.7 thousand tons to Algeria, and 76.7 thousand tons to Israel. Over 1.2 million tons of grain were delivered to the EU. The largest buyer of Ukrainian corn, Italy, has purchased over 2 million tons since the beginning of the season, which accounts for 50-70% of imports from outside the EU.

 

Prices at the western border remain at 176-178 €/t FCA Chop.

 

Wheat prices at the SRT ports of Odessa remain at $210/t for food grain (11.5%) and $205/t for feed grain for the third week. Trader activity is moderate, and processors in the central and western regions are provided with raw materials for February and March. Buyers are more interested in feed grain, so the price gap with food grain prices has sharply decreased.

 

Russian wheat prices are $5-8/t FOB lower than Ukrainian, which gives it an advantage in MENA tenders. Therefore, demand for Ukrainian grain is low.

 

From January 1 to 29, Ukraine exported 498.5 thousand tons of wheat, of which 174.4 thousand tons went to Algeria, 140.9 thousand tons to Egypt, 66 thousand tons to Portugal, 58.8 thousand tons to Yemen, 30.4 thousand tons to Tunisia, 28.6 thousand tons to Spain, and 17.4 thousand tons to Greece. Almost 97% of exports are provided by ports, but deliveries to the EU remain low.

 

Sunflower prices rose by $4/t to $689/t (including VAT) at the SPT port during the week amid increased demand from processors. At the same time, exports for January 1-29 amounted to only 6 thousand tons. At the same time, demand for sunflower oil from the EU remains high, and sea exports are stable, although transshipment volumes have decreased slightly. Almost 400 thousand tons of oil were exported in January.

 

Prices for sunflower oil for March delivery in 6 major EU ports remained at $1,485/t FOB during the week. Processing volumes remain high, but are decreasing among soybean and rapeseed oils.

 

The Ukrainian rapeseed market is entering the off-season phase. Domestic supply has decreased sharply, as the main batches were sold in the fall. Processors are more interested in sunflower, and traders are focused on forward purchases for the 2026 harvest.

 

In January 2026, Ukraine exported about 130 thousand tons of rapeseed and 50 thousand tons of rapeseed oil, which is approximately equivalent to 100 thousand tons of seeds. That is, together with the country's domestic balance in January, more than 230 thousand tons of rapeseed were withdrawn. The balance at the end of January was approximately 600 thousand tons, which is atypical for the second half of the season.

 

May rapeseed futures on MATIF fell by €5.25/t to €472.75/t in one day, while August and November futures fell by €2.75/t, reflecting reduced demand from the biofuels industry and expectations of excess supply in the new season. All 2027/28 contracts lost €3.25-5.25/t.

 

On the physical market, rapeseed oil prices increased by €10/t to €1,055/t FOB during the week, amid stable demand in the EU.

 

The global soybean market remains under bearish pressure. March SWOT futures fell again to 1,059 bushels on weak demand from China and expectations of a strong harvest in Brazil.

 

On the physical market, soybean oil prices fell to €1,115-1,125/t FCA Hamburg during the week under pressure from falling oilseed and palm oil quotes.

 

In Ukraine, prices for GMO soybeans for processing fell by $1/t to $462/t over the week amid weak demand from processors, while the price at ports rose to $427/t CPT.

 

In January, Ukraine exported over 210,000 tons of soybeans, mostly by rail to Poland, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, where demand for non-GMO soybeans has increased due to changes in EU regulatory requirements. In January, 32,000 tons of soybean oil were also exported, significantly exceeding the figure for previous months.