Ukrainian market review from Spike Brokers

As of 10/30/25, 40.200 million tons of grain and leguminous crops (47.972 million tons last year) and 15.629 (18.785) million tons of oilseeds (including soybeans) were threshed in Ukraine.

 

Late crops have been harvested so far: corn - 10.359 million tons (18.293 million tons last year on this date), sunflower - 8.371 (9.598) million tons, soybeans - 3.938 (5.729) million tons.

 

During October 1-29, 4 million tons of agricultural products were exported (6.2 million tons for the same period last year), including: wheat - 1.44 (1.6) million tons, rapeseed - 180 (462) thousand tons, corn - 776 (1,700) thousand tons, barley - 216 (367) thousand tons, soybeans - 202 (612) thousand tons, sunflower oil - 362 (451) thousand tons, rapeseed oil - 90 (60) thousand tons, soybean oil - 43 (39) thousand tons, sunflower meal - 266 (376) thousand tons.

 

In Ukraine, over 10 million tons of corn have been harvested from 40% of the area, and the yield is 20% better than last year.

 

The market is saturated with offers, but export shipments are 1.5 million tons lower than last year. According to forecasts, the corn harvest will exceed last year by 6 million tons, so exports should increase by 4-5 million tons to balance the market.

 

The spot market is overheated due to delayed harvest and logistical difficulties, and producers are actively contracting for November-December, as the global market has been showing lower prices since January. If spot prices fall below forward prices, producers will start concluding deals for later periods.

 

This week, corn was traded at $208/t (November) and $206/t (December) at CPT ports. For January deliveries, the price was initially $204-205/t, and by the end of the week it fell by $1-2/t. The spot price index for corn with delivery within 30 days increased by $2/t to $206/t during the week.

 

Corn is actively loaded on the western border (mainly towards Italy) due to the short logistics arm and stable cost of European logistics.

 

The possibility of selling on the terms "loaded at the farmer's and cleared by customs in a Ukrainian wagon" gives such exports an advantage over sea exports.

 

On the western border, corn is trading at €181-182/t (November-December), but prices will fall as the harvest in the EU approaches.

 

In the summer, wheat prices rose to $235/t for food grain and $230/t for feed grain due to delayed harvest, and then decreased by $15-20/t and remained at this level for almost 2 months.

 

Since the start of the season, 6.2 million tonnes of wheat have been exported (7.7 million tonnes last year), and the export backlog is increasing amid increasing supply. The spot index for food wheat (11.5% protein) with delivery within 30 days remained at $221/t during the week, and for feed wheat – at $208/t.

 

8.4 million tons of sunflower have already been harvested from 86% of the area (9.6 million tons on this date last year). Low yields, expensive energy sources, and logistical problems reduce the profitability of processing. Against the background of an increase in processing capacities in Ukraine, their utilization may drop to 60%.

 

All this increases the demand for sunflower oil, especially against the background of rising prices for soybeans and soybean meal. Prices for sunflower oil deliveries in November-December to Turkey are $1,300-1,320/t. A forward premium for sunflower oil has begun to form in the ports of Northern Europe.

 

The increase in prices for meal will contribute to the increase in prices for sunflower, which increased by $10-13/t including VAT in a week. Over the month, the spot price index for sunflower with delivery within 30 days increased by $9/t to $697/t including VAT.

 

Since the beginning of the season, Ukraine has exported only 1 million tons of rapeseed (2.4 million tons for the same period last year). Processors are reducing purchases, and producers are increasingly interested in high export prices, which have increased by €20/ton in the last 10 days following MATIF futures.

 

The spot price index for rapeseed for processing with delivery within 30 days remained at $592/t all week. The price for non-GMO rapeseed is $550/t CPT - seaports and €460/t DAP - western border.

 

World soybean prices in Chicago rose 10% in a week in anticipation of China's resumption of soybean imports from the US, which supports prices in Ukraine. The main sales market remains Europe, which imports 15-20 million tons of soybeans per year, mainly from South and North America.

 

Ukraine has harvested 4 million tons of soybeans, exports could amount to 3 million tons, and domestic processing could amount to 2.5 million tons.

 

The spot price index for GMO soybeans for export delivery within 30 days of the week increased by $2/t to $399/t, for soybeans for processing remained at $440/t including VAT, and the premium for non-GMO soybeans is $40-45/t.