Ukrainian market review from Spike Brokers

The domestic corn market reacted with a delay to the increase in world prices. On the basis of CPT-Odessa, prices increased by 5%, and on FOB they reached the highest level in the season. However, the reason is the devaluation of the dollar and the increase in stock market quotes, and not a shortage of supplies.

 

SWOT prices are rising on forecasts of a reduction in sowing areas in the US, high export rates (88% of the annual plan), and worsening weather in Brazil.

 

IGC experts have lowered the forecast for global production to 1.3 billion tons, and increased spending on fertilizers and fuel worsens the prospects for the 2027 and 2028 harvests.

 

On the physical market of Ukraine, FOB prices increased by 6% in a week after the introduction of the Turkish import quota. In April, Ukraine exported 1.75 million tons of corn, of which 583 thousand tons to Turkey.

 

The difference between corn and wheat prices has narrowed to 0-1%, although corn used to be cheaper. This means that the demand for feed grain is greater than for food grain.

 

During the week, prices for wheat on the Odessa CET increased by 11.5% and forage by 1%, while on the SWOT, after a slight increase, quotes turned downwards against the backdrop of a global supply surplus.

 

In April, Ukraine exported 920 thousand tons of wheat, of which 477 thousand tons went to Egypt, and 191 thousand tons to Spain. Deliveries to Algeria and Asian countries were also recorded.

 

Vegetable oil prices have started to recover after a decline, partly due to rising oil prices. In 6 European ports, sunflower oil prices rose by $30/t to $1,500/t in a week, but buyer demand remains volatile.

 

In Ukraine, sunflower prices increased by $9/t to $744/t CPT, which increases pressure on processing margins, as raw materials are becoming more expensive faster than processed products.

 

In April, oil exports amounted to 332 thousand tons (mainly to Turkey, Spain, and Italy), and meal exports amounted to 258 thousand tons, of which 149 thousand tons went to China.

 

Rapeseed prices are losing momentum after May futures renewed local highs. August contracts fell to €503/t, which so far looks like a technical correction without a change in trend.

 

On the EU physical market, the premium for immediate deliveries of rapeseed oil is €18/t, which supports processing.

 

Ukraine exports the remains of the 2025 harvest mainly to Germany and the Czech Republic at €535-540/t. The premium for new crop rapeseed is €5-10/t compared to MATIF or €510-515/t for 40% oil content.

 

The soybean complex strengthened slightly during the week. EU soybean oil prices rose by €20-30/t to €1,195/t following the increase in palm and sunflower oil prices.

 

However, the market remains under significant supply pressure as Brazil completes its soybean harvest and Argentina increases its harvest pace.

 

In Ukraine, soybean export prices decreased by $2/t to $434/t CPT during the week, while processors raised prices by $2/t to $496/t.

 

In April, Ukraine exported 258 thousand tons of soybean meal (149 thousand tons to China), 134 thousand tons of soybeans (mainly to the EU and Turkey) and 36 thousand tons of soybean oil (Poland).

 

In the physical market of Ukraine, active demand for the processed product keeps prices from falling.