Ukrainian market review from Spike Brokers experts
As of January 15, Ukraine harvested 59 million tons of grains and legumes, as well as 17.4 million tons of oilseeds (including soybeans).
The corn harvest amounted to 28.9 million tons (+200 thousand tons per week). Crops remain unharvested mainly in the northern and central regions, where yields are higher than average, which could add another 1.5-2 million tons to the final result.
During January 1-15, agricultural exports amounted to 2.6 million tons (compared to 2.5 million tons for December 1-15), including: wheat - 348 thousand tons, corn - 1.4 million tons, soybeans - 120 thousand tons, rapeseed - 92 thousand tons, rapeseed oil - 32 thousand tons, soybean oil - 14 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 215 thousand tons, sunflower meal - 167 thousand tons, soybean meal - 63 thousand tons.
???? CORN
The global market remains under pressure after the USDA raised its forecast for the US corn crop to a record 426 million tonnes, sparking a sell-off in the futures market. Meanwhile, Argentina remains in the spotlight with crop estimates ranging from 53 million tonnes (USDA) to 61 million tonnes (Rosario). Market sensitivity to the South American crop is fueling volatility, creating a window for Ukrainian corn on the EU and MENA markets in February-March.
The corn harvest in Ukraine is coming to an end. Despite the slowdown in the harvest in January, the final harvest could exceed 30 million tons. The increase in supply is putting pressure on the domestic market, and the stabilization of sea logistics is stimulating active exports.
Since the beginning of January, Ukraine has exported 1.43 million tons of corn, of which 434 thousand tons went to Italy, 307 thousand tons to Turkey, 113 thousand tons to Tunisia, 96 thousand tons to Spain, 57 thousand tons to Libya, and 58 thousand tons to Egypt. The geographical diversification of supplies indicates the high competitiveness of Ukrainian corn.
Prices stabilized amid moderate demand and delays in deliveries to ports during holidays and bad weather. Individual CPT-port deals were concluded at up to $207.5/t for January and February deliveries. The average corn price index decreased to $206/t (–$1/t for the week). On the western border, buyer prices stabilized at €176/t FCA Chop for March–June delivery.
The Italian route is overloaded with both sea and land deliveries: the total volume of shipments to Italy in January exceeded 2 million tons. This will likely significantly reduce demand from this market in February-March.
???? WHEAT
Global price decline trends remain: world production, according to IGC estimates, has grown to 842 million tons (+12 million tons per month), in particular due to record harvests in Australia, Argentina and Canada.
The main factor of pressure on prices in the Black Sea region remains competition from the Russian Federation - where FOB offers for wheat with 12.5% protein have again fallen below $230/t. This forms a tight benchmark for Ukrainian wheat in the MENA markets. The current activity of the Russian Federation in Saudi Arabia and Algeria emphasizes its aggressive export policy, especially against the background of reduced freight rates from Novorossiysk and increased logistics costs from Odessa due to shelling. This narrows export opportunities for Ukraine and forces sellers from Ukraine to be more aggressive and focus on quality, speed of delivery and CIF terms.
Wheat exports since the beginning of January amounted to 348 thousand tons. The main destinations are MENA markets: Egypt – 139.6 thousand tons, Algeria – 112 thousand tons, Yemen – 44 thousand tons. Deliveries to Europe are minimal, and mainly feed wheat (Spain – 28 thousand tons).
Spot prices record a wide range: feed wheat, depending on protein content, is $205–208/t, food wheat is $210–212/t CPT-port. The food wheat index has stabilized at $210/t, while feed wheat has decreased to $205/t. Demand from exporters is low, logistics is stable, and processors are gradually becoming more active in anticipation of seasonal demand.
???? SUNFLOWER AND ITS PROCESSING PRODUCTS
The increase in world prices for vegetable oils led to a significant jump in domestic prices for sunflower. Factories actively competed for raw materials, so prices rose by $30–40/ton during the week.
The spot sunflower index for delivery for processing within 30 days increased by $32/t to $665/t including VAT ($583/t excluding VAT).
Prices for deliveries to Bulgaria remain stable at $620–630/t depending on location. From January 1, 2026, sunflower exports from Ukraine to the EU will no longer be subject to duty, which increases competition between domestic processing and exports.
Sunflower oil in Ukraine is already trading at $1,300/t CPT port, while FOB Black Sea reaches $1,380/t.
Prices for sunflower meal on the SRT-port basis remain at $220–230/t, which is due to limited throughput capacity and insufficient interest from buyers. However, demand towards the western border is stable: prices for meal with delivery by road or railcars to the border are $238–245/t, depending on granulation and quality.
A new wave of price growth is observed on the world market: according to the updated USDA report, the forecast for sunflower oil production has been reduced due to a smaller harvest in the Russian Federation and Argentina, while global stocks have decreased by 0.3 million tons. This has supported quotes in the EU, and average prices in six major European ports have increased by $130/ton in a week.
???? RAPE
In July–December, rapeseed exports from Ukraine amounted to 1.45 million tons, while processing volumes are estimated at 948 thousand tons in seed equivalent (through rapeseed oil). With a harvest of 3.2 million tons, about 800 thousand tons of rapeseed will remain available for export in the second half of the season. The balance structure clearly indicates the dominance of seed exports over domestic processing, which is associated with high processing costs and limited margins of factories.
Rapeseed prices have been in a sideways trend since the beginning of the marketing year. In the direction of ports, they are 535–550 $/t, and in the direction of the EU - 490–510 €/t DAP (depending on oil content) with delivery by road or rail to processors in Germany.
Rapeseed prices on the MATIF exchange have recovered from their decline at the end of 2025, and the technical picture is gradually improving following the general increase in oilseed prices. Additional support for the market was provided by the USDA update, which confirmed the reduction in global rapeseed stocks against the background of lower export estimates for Australia and the continued high domestic consumption in the EU. For its part, the IGC points to a decrease in global rapeseed supply in the second half of the 2025/26 season, which forms a more balanced global market and increases the sensitivity of prices to any logistical or weather risks.
???? SOYBEAN
From July to January 15, total soybean exports from Ukraine amounted to 1.7 million tons (according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy), and since September - 1.1 million tons (which corresponds to the marketing year according to the USDA methodology). Exports of soybean oil, respectively, were 272 thousand tons (since July) and 181 thousand tons (since September). The volume of soybean processing since September amounted to 960 thousand tons. In the case of a harvest of 5 million tons, the residual soybean potential in Ukraine is about 3 million tons.
Soybean prices strengthened both for export and for domestic processing. The spot soybean price index on CPT-port terms increased to $424/t excluding VAT (+$3/t), the index for processing - to $454/t including VAT (+$3/t).
Globally, price pressure has intensified after the USDA's January report, which raised Brazil's soybean production forecast to a record 178 million tonnes and world ending stocks to 124.41 million tonnes, exceeding the December estimate (122.37 million tonnes) and market expectations (123.07 million tonnes). Excess supply in South America is shaping bearish expectations for prices in March-April.
