Ukrainian market overview from Spike Brokers analysts as of November 23, 2025

As of 11/20/25, Ukraine harvested 50.9 million tons of grain and legume crops (53.4 million tons last year) and 17 (19.5) million tons of oilseed crops (including soybeans).

 

Late crops harvested: corn – 20.8 million tons (23.6 million tons last year), sunflower – 9 (10) million tons, soybeans – 4.7 (6) million tons.

 

From November 1 to 20, 3.6 million tons of agricultural products were exported (4 million tons last year), including: wheat - 857 (796) thousand tons, rapeseed - 136 (264) thousand tons, corn - 1.2 (1.7) million tons, barley - 64 (66) thousand tons, soybeans - 217 (307) thousand tons, rapeseed oil - 51 (7) thousand tons, soybean oil - 27 (24) thousand tons, sunflower meal - 357 (187) thousand tons.

 

High transportation costs and low railcar turnover reduce profits and profitability of agricultural production and disrupt delivery times.

 

As of November 19, 9,346 wagons/day (+464) or 600,000 tons of cargo are moving towards the ports of Greater Odessa. The average loading rate is 1,399 wagons/day (+68), unloading is 1,311 wagons/day (+15). At this rate, by December 31, 55,000 wagons or 3.8 million tons of cargo will be unloaded in the ports, and the number of wagons on the road will increase to 13,200, which may block the system, so for unloading the ports, it is necessary to actively use the western borders, where 156 wagons/day are currently being transferred (+21; +15.6% by 10/30/25).

 

Ukraine has harvested 20.8 million tons of corn (+2.9 million tons per week), and 2.2 million tons have been exported since September (4.1 million tons last year). Therefore, exports will not exceed 5 million tons by the end of the year (compared to 7.6 million tons last year).

 

From November 1 to 20, 48% of exported corn or 552.3 thousand tons were delivered to Europe, most of them to Italy, Spain and the Netherlands.

 

Amid supply shortages, spot prices for 30-day corn rose by $1/t to $210/t. Prices for December delivery are also rising, while those for January-February delivery remain lower.

 

Italian buyers are actively offering corn for delivery in January-March to Chop in Eurocars at 186-188 EUR/t. Sales agreements for corn of the 2026 harvest are being recorded weekly on the western border towards Italy. Producers are interested in recording sales at 185 EUR/t or $218/t against the backdrop of significant year-end balances.

 

Demand for wheat is lower than for corn, but exports in November increased to 857 thousand tons (796 thousand tons last year), of which 30% or 258.7 thousand tons were delivered to Asia, 29% or 252.3 thousand tons to North Africa, and 14% or 123.5 thousand tons to the Middle East.

 

The spot price index for food wheat 11.5% with delivery within 30 days remained at $221/t, for feed wheat – $211/t.

 

In Ukraine, 9 million tons of sunflower were harvested from 92% of the area (10 million tons last year), so a harvest of 9.6 million tons looks quite realistic considering the sunflower that remained in the fields and could spoil.

 

Due to the shortage of quality seeds, factories have increased the maximum acidity level from 2.5% at the beginning of the season to 5% with a discount of 500 UAH/t. There are batches with acidity over 10%, which may increase the processing of sunflower for technical needs.

 

During the week, prices for oil in the ports of Northern Europe increased by $10/t, to Turkey they were $1295-1305/t CIF Mersin/Iskenderun, to Egypt – $1330/t. In the ports of Ukraine, sunflower oil cost $1230-1240/t CIF, and meal – $225/230/t (bulk/pellets).

 

The spot price index for sunflower for processing with delivery within 30 days increased by $2/t to $685/t.

 

The fall in oil prices has lowered rapeseed futures on MATIF to last Friday's level, but February futures have the potential to rise to 495-500 EUR/t.

 

From November 1 to 20, Ukraine exported 120,000 tons of rapeseed, mainly to France, Germany, and Belgium.

 

During the week, the spot price index for rapeseed for processing with delivery within 30 days increased by $1/t to $593/t including VAT. In the direction of the western border, demand fell to 450 EUR/t DAP for basic quality loaded into wagons.

 

Soybean supply is limited by low yields and expensive logistics. In ports, prices for GMO soybeans are $420/t, for non-GMO soybeans – $455-460/t with delivery in December, towards Italy – $450-455/t SRT-Chop with delivery by car or railcars.

 

The spot price index for GMO soybeans for export with delivery within 30 days increased by $6/t to $418/t (excluding VAT), for processing – by $4/t to $454/t (including VAT). The premium for non-GMO soybeans is $35-40/t.