Ukrainian market overview as of December 28, 2025 from Spike Brokers experts

As of December 25, 2025, Ukraine harvested 17.4 million tons of oilseeds (including soybeans) and 57.6 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, including 27.5 million tons of corn (of which 1 million tons in the last week).

 

During December 1-25, 3.8 million tons of agricultural products were exported (4.3 million tons for the same period last year), of which 416 thousand tons of wheat, 156 thousand tons of rapeseed, 1.7 million tons of corn, 65 thousand tons of barley, 280 thousand tons of soybeans, 313 thousand tons of sunflower oil, and 3 thousand tons of sunflower meal.

 

Processing plants are forced to reduce the volume of sunflower processing. The logistics complication caused by damage to port infrastructure is forcing plants to incur increased costs for the cost of sales of processed products, which leads to a decrease in purchase prices for sunflower.

 

Against this background, sunflower exports to the EU are becoming increasingly relevant. Increasing energy and logistics costs make raw material exports more attractive than domestic processing.

 

The spot index of sunflower for delivery for processing within 30 days decreased by $26/t including VAT to $646/t. At the same time, world prices for oil increased by more than $100/t against the background of a decrease in supply from Ukraine. In six ports of Northern Europe, oil prices increased from $1,340-1,345/t to $1,450-1,460/t in a week.

 

The soybean market remains relatively stable. Export prices for soybeans remain unchanged, while domestic processing prices have decreased slightly.

 

The spot price index for GMO soybeans delivered to CPT port for export within 30 days remains at $425/t excluding VAT. At the same time, the spot index for GMO soybeans for processing decreased by $2/t to $459/t including VAT.

 

As of 12/25/25, 27.5 million tons of corn were harvested from 87% of the area in Ukraine with an average yield of 7.13 tons/ha, and about 551 thousand hectares of crops remain unthreshed, which corresponds to an additional 4 million tons.

 

However, the main unharvested areas are concentrated in regions with yields that are significantly higher than average. The largest residues are recorded in Sumy region (~93 thousand ha; ~8.0 t/ha), Zhytomyr region (~56 thousand ha; ~7.7 t/ha), Chernihiv region (~49 thousand ha; ~8.8 t/ha), Kyiv region (~29 thousand ha; ~9.2 t/ha) and Cherkasy region (~29 thousand ha). Taking into account the yield indicators in these regions, the additional corn harvest could reach 4.3-4.5 million tons.

 

Corn exports by sea are slowing down, leading to lower prices, especially given the increased risks and additional costs of sea shipments. The spot index for corn delivered to CPT (30 days) fell to $204/t.

 

If prices in ports decrease by another $5/t, the western border will become a competitive alternative for a number of regions of central Ukraine. At the same time, the supply towards the western border continues to grow: FCA - Chop contracts for delivery in March-May were concluded at €180/t.

 

The wheat market in Ukraine is trapped: in recent months, the main sales markets have been the Middle East and North Africa, while exports to the EU are limited by the decisions of the European Commission. Therefore, the suspension of sea exports effectively blocks sales, and the only stable market for wheat remains domestic processing. A significant supply volume with limited demand leads to a drop in prices. The spot index of food wheat (11.5% protein) with delivery to the CPT port remains unchanged at $212/t, feed wheat – $206/t.

 

As of 12/25/25, the accumulation of wagons in the direction of the ports of Greater Odessa increased to 11,656 t/day (+190 per week), the average unloading rate fell to 953 t/day (-60), and the load in the direction of the ports decreased to 1,077 t/day (-48). The net daily accumulation is 124 t/day, which increases the pressure on the infrastructure.

 

The port infrastructure of the Black Sea region operates with significant load and limited unloading, which increases the risks of accumulation of wagons during peak holiday periods and passing technical "nodes" at the end of the year.

 

At the same time, at the western border crossings, the average daily transfer of grain wagons as of 12/23/25 increased to 189 tons/day (+20 tons/day; +12% compared to data as of 11/30/25), which indicates an increase in exports in this direction and a strengthening of the role of dry ports in the country's logistical export balance.

 

The volume of transfers to Hungary increased the most – to 52.3 tons/day (+4.1) and remains a key export route from Ukraine to the EU. The main destination market for cargoes remains Italy.

 

Slovakia increased its capacity to 32.7 t/day (+11.6). The 1435 mm gauge transmission increased to 23.4 t/day, and the 1520 mm gauge to 9.3 t/day. This transition showed the largest increase in December.

 

Poland improved its performance to 15 wagons/day (+7.7), in particular on the 1435 mm gauge to 9.1 wagons/day, and on the 1520 mm gauge to 5.9 wagons/day, which indicates a gradual resumption of work on the Polish route.

 

Romania reduced transmission to 7.4 bbl/day (-4) due to situational constraints and technical circumstances on the infrastructure.

 

Truck exports through the western border crossing between December 1 and 25 amounted to ≈241 thousand tons, which confirms the stable operation of autologistics even in winter conditions. The average daily flow in December was ≈9.6 thousand tons/day, and the key crossings Porubno-Siret, Krakovets-Korcheva, Chop-Zachony, Rava-Ruska-Hrebene and Dyakove-Halmeu demonstrated high efficiency and provided the main volume of supplies.

 

The comfortable potential for increasing automotive exports (without the risk of infrastructure overload and system queues) is estimated at +10-20%. Therefore, the monthly volume of auto exports could reach 320-350 thousand tons/month (versus the current 260-280 thousand tons) in 2024-2025.

 

Once the limited port infrastructure leads to a decrease in prices towards ports by $5-10/t, rail routes to the western border will become economically feasible for most regions of Ukraine. The total throughput capacity of rail crossings, verified since 2022, is estimated at 1 million tons/month, and road exports can provide an additional 350-500 thousand tons of exports per month.