Low demand lowers US wheat quotes, increasing price pressure in Ukraine and the EU

The blocking of sea exports of wheat from Ukraine and the Russian Federation did not increase demand for American wheat, which continues to put pressure on quotes in the US, which fell by 10-13% during the month and almost completely lost the speculative growth recorded during the attacks on Russian terminals in August.

 

Wheat exports from the US during October 8-15 decreased by 21.8% compared to the previous week to 240.3 thousand tons, which is 51.3% lower than the corresponding figure last year, and in total since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY, it amounted to 7.22 million tons, which is already 64.4% lower than last year's rates.

 

During the week, December US wheat futures fell:

• by 2.5% to $240.8/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-10.7% per month),
• by 2.3% to $257/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (-13.4%),
• by 3.9% to $246.2/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-10.3%).

 

It should be noted that December soft wheat futures on Euronext in Paris traded at €243.5/t or $273/t (+0.8% month-on-month) during the week. European prices are supported by a lower EU corn harvest forecast and high corn prices, which reach €292/t for November contracts and €270/t for March contracts.

 

In the 2026/27 MY, as of October 11, EU countries exported 8 million tons of wheat, which is in line with last year's pace, and the main exporters are Romania (3 million tons), Bulgaria, Latvia, and Poland.

 

Ukraine exported 558 thousand tons of wheat in 16 days of October (compared to 877 thousand tons last year), and in total since the beginning of the season — 3.34 (5.61) million tons.

 

The largest importer of Ukrainian wheat in the first half of October was Egypt, which purchased 136.9 thousand tons or 24.6% of the total export volume. Algeria took second place (110.71 thousand tons or 19.9% of shipments). Turkey purchased 53.82 thousand tons of wheat, Spain - 52.40 thousand tons, Italy - 48.43 thousand tons.

 

Despite the blockade of Black Sea ports, Ukraine continues to export grain through the ports of the Danube and in transit through the ports of Romania and Poland, but due to shelling and alarms at the western borders, many wagons are idle, waiting for 20-40 days to be reloaded or cross the border, which increases the cost of logistics and limits export prices.

 

In Ukraine, traders buy wheat at low prices of UAH 5,000–5,500/t for feed wheat and UAH 5,500–6,500/t for food wheat on an EXW ex-elevator basis, but farmers do not conduct active sales, selling mainly oilseeds.

Processors also keep prices for food wheat at 6,500–7,000 UAH/t with delivery to the mill.

 

In the Danube ports, export purchase prices for food wheat remain at $170–177/t or UAH 8,000/t, and for feed wheat at $150–155/t or UAH 7,000–7,500/t, but subject to payment with a long delay or with a 14% surcharge after VAT reimbursement by the state, which may last several months.

 

Demand prices for Ukrainian food wheat delivered to Constanta remain at $250-260/t, but falling wheat prices in the US may increase pressure on prices.

 

The basic rate of ship insurance for a voyage to the Black Sea ports of the Russian Federation or Ukraine before the blockade in 2024 was $150-250 thousand, and in October 2026 it reached $2.5 million per voyage, having increased 10-16 times, which corresponds to an additional $35.7/t of grain for military risk insurance alone in the freight rate.

 

The increase in freight costs has significantly reduced prices for Russian wheat, which is still partially exported from Black Sea ports, but is not shipped from Azov-Don ports, so we expect that after the new year, the Russian Federation, having significant wheat reserves, will be forced to begin negotiations to resume the operation of Black Sea ports.