Soybean prices in Chicago fell on lack of news from Trump-Xi meeting, while prices in Ukraine are falling due to worsening export logistics

Soybean quotes in Chicago rose 7% in a month, receiving speculative support from increased purchases by China ahead of Xi Jinping's visit to the US and in anticipation of new agreements to increase sales of agricultural products from the US to China.

The US hosted the Chinese leader at the highest level, with President Trump personally meeting Xi Jinping at the aircraft ramp at Joint Base Andrews near Washington. The Chinese leader was given a red carpet welcome, an honor guard, the flags and anthems of the two countries, and two B-1 bombers flew over the base.

The move suggests Trump is trying to ease the effects of the trade war between the countries, which he started by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods at the start of his second term. But after the first day of his visit, there has been no news of improved trade relations, leading to a decline in quotes.

November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have risen 6.5% over the past month to $484/t and are trading 24% higher than a year ago, but fell 1% yesterday after the close of trading.

According to USDA, soybean export sales for the week of September 10-17 fell to a 12-week low of 0.582 million tons, half the expectations of analysts, with China purchasing only 311 thousand tons. This indicates that China has already purchased the volumes needed to cover its needs before the arrival of the new crop of Brazilian soybeans.

In Ukraine, as of September 21, 655 thousand tons of soybeans were threshed from 328 thousand hectares or 21% of the area with a yield of 2 tons/ha, while at this time in 2025, 945 thousand tons were harvested from 483.7 thousand hectares (22.3%) with a yield of 1.95 tons/ha (in 2024 – 49% and 2.04 tons/ha).

As the harvest progresses, the supply of soybeans increases, but prices for GMO soybeans remain at UAH 16,000-16,500/t delivered to the plant. Processors have been actively buying volumes at low prices, but now, due to the increasing cost of delivering oil and meal to ports or to buyers in the EU, they will be forced to lower prices.

Demand for Ukrainian soybeans from the EU remains stable due to the growth of world prices. Export prices for soybeans with GMOs and 33% protein (on a raw basis) are $400-420/t delivered to the border and $430-440/t loaded into a Eurocar, and for soybeans without GMOs - $440-450/t delivered to the border.

Soybean markets will remain under pressure for 2-3 weeks from falling oil prices, increased supply from the US, and reduced speculative demand due to improved weather in South America, despite the El Niño effect, which was supposed to reduce rainfall.