Speculative rise in soybean, wheat and corn prices continues on the Chicago Stock Exchange in anticipation of the Trump-Xi meeting

Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Bessant met with his Chinese counterparts in preparation for the US-China leaders' meeting scheduled for September 24, 2026.

Positive signals from trade negotiations give hope for new agreements on purchases of American agricultural products during the meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping, leading to a sharp increase in quotes.

In recent weeks, China has stepped up purchases of American soybeans and has already purchased about 13 million tons of the agreed volume of 25 million tons per year, so traders are waiting for additional agreements on the purchase of other crops, including wheat, corn, and sorghum.

November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 1.9% to $488/t on Monday (+8.4% month-on-month), supported by data on increased exports.

According to the USDA report, soybean exports from the US increased by 12% to 759.2 thousand tons in the week of September 11-17, and in total since the beginning of the 2025/26 MY reached 36.85 million tons, but fell short of the USDA's forecast of 41 million tons.

Speculators are actively buying corn and wheat futures, which is why December corn futures rose by 2.9% yesterday to $213.8/t (+5.2% for the month), and wheat futures rose by 1.8% to $267/t (+3.9%).

Corn exports from the US for September 11-17 increased by 25% compared to the previous week to 1.938 million tons, which is 40% higher than the corresponding figure last year and supports quotes.

Prices are also supported by reduced supplies from the Black Sea region, while favorable sowing weather in Brazil is cooling markets.

According to estimates by AgRural, in Brazil, as of September 17, 27% of the area was sown with first-crop corn (25% in this period last year), and 1.2% with soybeans (0.9% last year) thanks to favorable precipitation that began earlier than usual this season.

We expect that the meeting between the leaders of China and the US will not bring concrete agreements, so at the end of the week, quotes will roll back to previous levels.