Rapeseed quotes in Paris continue to rise rapidly, supporting prices in Ukraine

Restrictions on grain exports from Ukraine due to targeted Russian attacks on civilian vessels entering Ukrainian ports have virtually stopped the export of rapeseed from Ukraine by sea and have become an additional driver of the speculative increase in rapeseed quotes in Paris and Winnipeg following the increase in oil prices.

 

August rapeseed futures on the Euronext Paris exchange yesterday rose by another 2.4% to €557.25/t or $635/t (+5.6% for the week, +10.5% for the month), and November futures rose by 1.6% to the highest level since July 25, 2024, at €559/t.

 

According to forecasts, the rapeseed harvest in France will remain at last year's level , and in Germany it will grow by 1.5% to 4.03 million tons due to an increase in areas, so the supply of rapeseed on the EU market is quite large, especially given the increase in stock prices.

 

At the same time, there is a decrease in physical prices for rapeseed with delivery to factories in August - September due to excessive supply, especially from Ukrainian sellers, who are now reorienting themselves to deliveries by car or rail across the western border.

 

Thus, prices for rapeseed with delivery to a plant in Germany in August are now €26/t lower than prices for Matif, with delivery in September – €20/t lower, and with delivery in December – €6/t lower for an oil content of 40%.

 

On the ICE exchange in Winnipeg, November canola futures rose 1.9% yesterday to 810 CAD/t or $575/t (+2.5% for the week, +8.7% for the month) on the back of stronger demand.

 

According to the Canadian Grain Commission, during the week of July 6-12, canola exports from Canada increased sharply to 305 thousand tons (compared to 52.5 thousand tons the week before), and in total in the 2025/26 MY reached 8.56 million tons, which is 7.3% lower than the previous season's pace, but already exceeds the annual forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, set at 8.4 million tons.

 

The canola market in Canada may again come under pressure from falling domestic demand and falling prices, as yesterday Trump re-imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods worth about $20 billion out of total imports of about $380 billion per year, which could renew the “tariff war” between the countries.

 

In Ukraine, export demand prices for rapeseed are supported by rising quotations in Paris, especially on the western border, where prices have increased by €10/t to €485-500/t or $565-575/t with delivery to terminals on the western border.

 

Demand in Black Sea ports is decreasing, so prices remain at $550-565/t (oil content 42%) or UAH 25,500-26,000/t with delivery to ports, and some traders have stopped purchases altogether due to heavy shelling of ports and ships.

 

Processors are actively reducing their purchase prices, and yesterday they lowered them by another 500 UAH/t to 23,700–25,000 UAH/t ($470–490/t excluding VAT) with delivery to the plant due to limited export opportunities for oil and meal.

 

Increased rapeseed supply and uncertainty about exports will contribute to increased processing in Ukraine (even at the expense of falling farmer incomes) and will lead to a further reduction in rapeseed exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 MY.