Despite the intense heat, the French Ministry of Agriculture has slightly lowered its grain and rapeseed harvest forecasts for 2026

In the updated forecast of agricultural production for 2026, experts from the French Ministry of Agriculture slightly reduced estimates of grain crops, which are already supported by stock market quotes, and left the estimate of rapeseed harvest unchanged.

Production of major crops is expected to decrease compared to last year:

• soft wheat – by 4% to 32 million tons (by 2% compared to the average for 5 years),
• barley – by 6.3% to 11.1 million tons (-2.3%).

A significant reduction in wheat and barley harvests has already led to higher prices on the spot and futures markets.

At the same time, rapeseed production is forecast at last year's level of 4.63 million tons, which will provide processors with stable supplies of raw materials. In conditions of balanced demand and supply, the impact of this factor on the market is considered neutral, which should not lead to strong volatility.

In Germany, due to the abnormal heat of recent weeks, the forecast for grain production in 2026 has been reduced by 5.6%, while rapeseed production has been left at 4 million tons, which will slightly exceed last year's figure.

According to FranceAgriMer, in France, harvest rates significantly exceed the 5-year average, and as of July 13, soft wheat has been harvested on 92% of the area, durum wheat on 99%, spring barley on 90%, and winter barley on 100% of the area.

Corn harvest will begin in August, after crops were severely affected by heat and moisture shortages in June and July. During the week, the number of crops in good or excellent condition decreased from 47% to 41% (72% last year).