Palm oil prices are falling under pressure from large inventories, while sunflower oil prices are falling in anticipation of increased supply.

The rise in oil prices to a 5-month high is supporting vegetable oil prices, but significant inventories and the arrival of a new crop are increasing pressure on markets.

December soybean oil futures on the Chicago SWOT exchange traded at $1,470/tonne (-1.5% month-on-month) during the week, supported by rising oil prices, but soybean quotes continue to fall, falling another 1.4% to $450/tonne (-4.9% month-on-month) during the week under pressure from the US harvest and favorable conditions in Brazil .

Over the week, spot prices for soybean oil in Brazil increased by $10-20/t to $1,240-1,260/t FOB, and soybean oil futures in Dalian (China) increased by $15-20/t to $1,340-1,350/t.

December palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange have fallen by 2.5% to 4,701 ringgit/t or $1,151/t over the past 7 days. At the same time, traders completely ignored the 6% increase in oil prices in a week and the increase in palm oil exports from Malaysia in 25 days of October by 47-67% compared to September.

Huge palm oil stocks in Malaysia are increasing supply and putting pressure on prices as traders expect demand to ease amid a resumption of active sunflower oil supplies from the Black Sea region.

In September, India reduced the import duty on unrefined sunflower oil from 10% to 0%, so sunflower oil imports to the country in the 2026/27 MY may grow by 30% to 3.5 million tons, especially against the backdrop of increased sunflower production in the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

Offer prices for Russian sunflower oil with delivery FOB - St. Petersburg decreased by $30-50/t to $1,275-1,300/t during the week against the backdrop of falling domestic prices for sunflower, which will allow traders to reduce offer prices on the Indian market.

Prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine decreased during the week to $900-1000/t FCA - plant due to a further increase in the cost of delivering oil to buyers by road and rail, while prices with delivery to the EU decreased by $20-30/t to $1300-1320/t due to the fall in the euro exchange rate against the dollar.

The Russian Federation's agreement to resume trilateral negotiations with Ukraine and the United States from November 4 is leading to a decrease in stock market quotes for wheat and other crops exported from the Black Sea region, so we expect increased speculative pressure on the prices of sunflower oil and meal in anticipation of a sharp increase in supply on the world market in the event of at least a partial resumption of sea exports.