Crude oil prices rise to 5-month high amid growing rumors of a possible US military strike on Iran
On Thursday and Friday, December Brent crude futures rose 6% to a 5-month high of $117/barrel (+19.4% for the month, +67% since the start of the Iran war), and WTI crude futures rose 6.2% to $103/barrel (+15.7%, +64%) due to increasing rumors of a possible resumption of active US military strikes on Iran.
On Thursday, The New York Times reported that the U.S. and Israeli military have developed plans to resume military strikes on Iran after the U.S. and Israeli elections. The newspaper noted that President Trump has not yet approved these plans. Earlier this week, the U.S. State Department announced the evacuation of family members of U.S. embassy employees and non-essential personnel from Saudi Arabia. Markets have begun to speculate on the possibility that the Trump administration could launch a military strike before the election.
On Thursday, President Trump, commenting on the situation with Iran, said: "We hit them pretty hard, and we're probably going to hit them a little bit more," adding: "One way or another, something's going to happen — and pretty soon."
Meanwhile, Mike Walz, President Trump's UN envoy, told the Financial Times in an interview published on Friday that the US is preparing for a prolonged confrontation with Iran that could remain deadlocked even a year from now. He added that the US Navy could maintain a blockade of Iranian ports for the "foreseeable future" and the administration would increase economic pressure on the country.
Despite Iran’s active attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf, oil supplies continue to grow. According to Kpler, in October, the volume of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz reached 16.7 million barrels/day, while Vortexa estimates it at 15.4 million barrels/day, while before the war it was about 19 million barrels/day.
Oil prices started Monday down 2% to $114.5/barrel, as there were no strikes over the weekend. This week will focus on the Israeli parliamentary elections, which will be held on October 27 and could affect Prime Minister Netanyahu's position, as well as the US congressional elections, which will be held on November 3.
