Wheat stock market quotes fell another 5.7-7.5% in a week, returning to the level at the beginning of the season.

Low export demand, improved weather in Australia and Argentina , and favorable weather conditions for sowing winter wheat completely offset the factor blocking sea exports of wheat from Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which led to a drop in wheat quotes during September and October to the levels of the beginning of the 2026/27 season.

Last week, prices fell another 5.7-7.5% under the pressure of news about the possible resumption of negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation .

During the week, December wheat futures fell:

• by 6.4% to $226.3/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-12.2% per month),
• by 6.2% to $242.1/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (-13%),
• by 5.7% to $233/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-10.7%),
• by 7.5% to €226.5/t or $273/t - for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (-4.5% per month).

Wheat exports from the US in the period October 15-22 decreased by 28% compared to the previous week to 183.8 thousand tons, which is 31.9% lower than the corresponding figure last year, and in total since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY amounted to 7.42 million tons, which is already 35.4% lower than last year's rates.

According to the NASS USDA weekly report, as of October 25, 76% of the area in the US was sown with winter wheat (77% on average over 5 years), but the warm weather with precipitation forecast for the coming days will allow for accelerated sowing.

In the 26 days of October, Ukraine exported 764 thousand tons of wheat (compared to 1.448 million tons last year), and in total since the beginning of the season — 3.54 (6.185) million tons. This indicates that wheat exports from Ukraine continue, albeit at a much lower pace.

As of October 21, 3.51 million hectares of winter wheat have been sown in Ukraine, or 77.4% of the forecast, but heavy rains are delaying the sowing and harvesting of late crops.

Purchase prices for food wheat remain at $170–177/t or UAH 8,000–8,400/t, and for feed wheat at $150–155/t or UAH 7,000–7,500/t with delivery to Danube ports or western terminals, but due to falling domestic prices and rising delivery costs, trading activity remains very low. Processors also maintain prices for food wheat at UAH 6,500–7,000/t with delivery to the mill.

According to SovEkon, wheat exports from the Russian Federation in October will amount to about 2-2.5 million tons (compared to 5.4 million tons in October 2025) due to a decrease in supplies from the Black Sea region. The largest Russian port of Novorossiysk has partially resumed grain shipments after a long stop, and in the first 20 days of October 59.6 thousand tons of grain were exported from it compared to 1.7 million tons for the same period last year. The freight rate on the Astrakhan-Iran route from $ 47 / ton in August reached $ 117-122 / ton as of October 20, 2026.

Analysts have increased their forecasts for Australian wheat production in the 2026/27 MY to 29.8-31 million tonnes due to favorable weather in recent months.