Russia's promise to resume negotiations with Ukraine led to a speculative decline in wheat stock quotes by 2.5% per day

The blocking of sea exports of grain from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and the Russian Federation led to a sharp increase in wheat prices, so any news or rumors about the resumption of negotiations create speculative pressure on quotes.

Yesterday, stock market prices for wheat fell by 2.5-3.6% on news of Russian negotiations with US representatives and the Russian President's agreement to resume trilateral talks with the US and Ukraine from November 10.

December soft wheat futures on Euronext in Paris fell the most, immediately by 3.6% to €233/t or $261/t, as they have the maximum profit from the closure of exports from the Russian Federation.

December US wheat futures fell as follows:

• by 2.5% to $230.8/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2.6% to $247.3/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (-13.4%),
• by 1.6% to $240.8/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-10.3%).

However, we believe that the parties will not reach any substantive negotiations on the cessation of attacks on ports or ships until January-February, when the Russian Federation will need to quickly sell off its significant wheat reserves, while throughout the winter the Russian invaders will try to exhaust and break the Ukrainians.