Corn prices fell as USDA experts lowered the US crop forecast to less than analysts expected

The November USDA corn balance did not bring the market such surprises as the wheat balance, but the US corn harvest forecast turned out to be higher than analysts expected, so corn quotes decreased.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in a new report lowered its forecast for US corn yield from 186.7 to 186.0 bushels/acre (11.67 t/ha), and its forecast for US corn production in the 2025/26 MY by only 1.58 million tons to 425.53 million tons, which would still be a record value, while analysts expected a decrease in yield to 184 bushels/acre and production to 420.55 million tons.

Despite the global corn balance being virtually unchanged from September, December corn futures in Chicago fell 2.6% to $169.4/t after the report was released and are trading at levels seen two months ago. Notably, March futures are trading $5/t higher at $174.8/t, indicating traders' expectations for price growth in the second half of the season, although analysts expect crop forecasts in China and Brazil to be revised upwards.

The world corn balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes compared to September estimates:

• The forecast for opening stocks has been increased by 7.48 million tons to 291.66 (315.5 in 2024/25 MY) million tons due to a significant adjustment of the balance for 2024/25 MY, including an increase in the world corn harvest by 1.82 million tons (in Brazil by 1 million tons to 136 (119) million tons) and a reduction in world consumption by 5.65 million tons to 1,254.6 million tons (in particular, in the USA by 4.6 million tons to 312.8 million tons (322.9 million tons in 2023/24 MY)).
• The forecast for world corn production has practically not changed and remained at a record level of 1286.23 (1230.73) million tons, but the harvest estimate for the USA has been reduced by 1.58 million tons to 425.53 (378.27) million tons, and for Mexico (the main importer of corn from the USA) - increased by 1.2 million tons to 26 (23.2) million tons. At the same time, the harvest forecast for China has been left at 295 million tons, although the Chinese authorities have increased their forecast to 300 million tons. The forecast for Brazil has also been left at 131 million tons, although local analysts are already estimating the harvest at 137-141 million tons. The harvest forecast for Ukraine has been left at 32 million tons.
• The global consumption forecast has been increased by 7.18 million tons to a record 1,296.54 million tons, but the consumption forecast for the 2024/25 MY has been reduced to 1,254.6 million tons, and with global wheat production increasing by 28 million tons compared to the last season, corn consumption is unlikely to reach this level.
• The forecast for world corn exports has been increased by 1.76 million tons to 203.47 million tons (for the 2024/25 MY, the forecast has been reduced from 193.8 to 188.5) due to an increase in the forecast for exports from the USA by 2.54 million tons to 78.11 (71.9) million tons, which compensates for a decrease in exports of expensive corn from Ukraine by 1 million tons to 24.5 (20) million tons.
• The forecast for world corn imports has been reduced by 2.08 million tons to 191.12 (183.8) million tons, in particular for the EU - by 2 million tons to 21 (18.7) million tons, and for China - by 2 million tons to 8 (1.8) million tons, although the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture has reduced the import forecast to 6 million tons. The forecast for corn imports has been increased for Iran, Egypt, Venezuela and the United Kingdom.
• The forecast for ending corn stocks was left at 281.34 (291.66) million tons, but for China, the stock estimate was reduced by 3.16 million tons to 173.9 (191.9) million tons, which is offset by an increase in stocks in exporting countries.

Corn quotes in the US will continue to decline after a speculative increase caused by expectations of increased demand from China, while increased supply from the US and Ukraine, as well as favorable weather conditions for corn and soybean sowing in Brazil and Argentina starting in December-January, will further increase pressure on prices.