China continues to increase corn production

In 2025/26 MY, China may harvest 298 million tons of corn (295 million tons in 2024/25 MY) and reduce its imports in accordance with the self-sufficiency policy.

 

Improved yields amid stable planting areas are contributing to increased harvests, while imports are declining due to government policies aimed at achieving self-sufficiency and reducing imports to protect local farmers, the USDA FAS said in its report.

 

FAS experts have reduced the forecast for corn imports to China in 2025/26 MY by 1 million tons to 7 million tons, and in 2024/25 MY by 2 million tons, compared to previous estimates, while in 2023/24 MY imports reached 23.4 million tons.

 

The forecast for corn consumption for the 2025/26 MY was left at 321 million tons, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY by 1%. The increase in consumption is due to the return of traditional norms in feed rations, low prices, which stimulate processing, and government policy, which limits the import of corn substitutes.

 

In China, 67% of corn is used for feed and 26% for industrial processing. In 2024, feed production was 313 million tons, and in 2025 it will reach 322 million tons.

 

According to the China National Grain and Oilseed Information Center (CNGOIC), corn processing capacity exceeds 130 million tons. In northern regions, it increased by 3% compared to last year, but the slowdown in the ethanol industry limits the increase in consumption.

 

According to the China Starch Industry Association, in 2024, 85 million tons of corn were processed, from which 48 million tons of starch and more than 20 million tons of starch sugar were obtained.

 

Wheat production is forecast to be reduced by 1 million tonnes to 140 million tonnes compared to previous estimates, of which 35 million tonnes will be used for feed, as the price differential with maize narrows. Sown areas and yields are expected to remain stable. Wheat consumption will increase by 2 million tonnes to 152 million tonnes compared to 2024/25 MY, mainly for feed production, while food consumption will decrease due to an aging and shrinking population, as well as changes in diets, which limits flour use and threatens the operation of small mills.

 

Paddy rice production in 2025/26 MY will increase by 1 million tonnes to 208 million tonnes compared to the previous season due to improved yields. Rice consumption will increase by 2 million tonnes to 147 million tonnes due to increased feed stocks and industrial use.