FAO Food Price Index falls for third consecutive month, global grain harvest to exceed 3 billion tonnes for first time in 2025/26 MY

According to the UN FAO forecast, in the 2025/26 MY, global grain production will exceed 3 billion tons for the first time in history and reach 3.003 billion tons.

Wheat production will increase due to a record harvest in Argentina and large harvests in the US and EU. Feed grain production, primarily barley, will increase to a lesser extent. Rice production will increase by 1.6% over last year to reach a record 558.8 million tonnes. The largest increases in yields will be in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India and Indonesia, offsetting production declines in Nepal, Madagascar, Thailand and the US.

In the Northern Hemisphere, winter wheat planting for the 2026 harvest has been completed, but in the US, due to dry conditions in some regions, only 45% of winter wheat crops are in good or excellent condition, which is 10% less than last year.

In the EU, sowing continues amid favorable weather, although in some areas of Italy, a lack of rainfall may negatively affect wheat crops. In the main wheat-growing regions of the Russian Federation, sowing was completed in November under favorable conditions.

Thanks to high prices, wheat sowing areas in India could exceed last year's record, and in Pakistan, surpass the multi-year average.

Argentina and Brazil can increase feed grain production by increasing the area under corn.

The volume of world grain trade in the 2025/26 MY will increase by 3.3% compared to the previous season to 500.6 million tons, in particular, trade in wheat and feed grains will increase.

The FAO Food Price Index average has fallen for the third consecutive month. In November, it fell by 1.2% compared to October, from 126.6 to 125.1 points, which is 2.1% lower than the November 2024 figure and 21.9% lower than the record value of March 2022.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 1.8% in November to 105.5 points, down 5.3% from November 2024. Despite strong harvests in Australia and Argentina, global wheat prices rose 2.5% in November on expectations of stronger demand from China and continued hostilities in the Black Sea. Maize prices rose due to delayed planting in Brazil and Argentina. The FAO All-Rice Price Index fell 1.5% as crops in major exporting countries entered the market.

The average FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index fell 2.6% to a 5-month low of 165 points, driven by falling prices for palm, rapeseed and sunflower oils.

The average value of the FAO Meat Price Index fell by 0.8% to 124.6 points, but is 4.9% higher than in November 2024. Prices are pressured by the resumption of supplies from major exporting countries after the end of avian influenza outbreaks and reduced demand for pork due to significant supply.

The average value of the FAO Dairy Price Index decreased by 3.1% to 137.5 points, which is 1.7% lower than the indicator in November 2024. The prices of all major types of dairy products have been falling for 5 consecutive months due to increased production and increased competition.

The average value of the FAO Sugar Price Index fell by 5.9% to 88.6 points, which is 29.9% lower than the level in November 2024. This index has fallen for 3 consecutive months, and for the second month it has been at its lowest level since December 2020.