FAS predicts a decrease in wheat and barley production in Turkey and an increase in imports

According to a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), due to dry weather conditions, Turkey will harvest a smaller wheat and barley crop in the 2025/26 MY, so it will have to increase imports to meet domestic demand.

In its latest forecast, FAS predicts a 15% year-on-year decline in wheat production to 16.3 million tonnes, as a slight increase in sowing areas does not compensate for yield losses.

Amid the expected production decline, FAS has increased its wheat import forecast for 2025/26 to 10.3 million tonnes, more than three times the previous season's figure of 3.2 million tonnes. If the forecast is realized, consumption will be the highest since 2019/20.

“Production could decline further, depending on the extent of drought damage,” FAS said. “Precipitation was insufficient in the main wheat-growing areas of central and southeastern Anatolia, which, combined with above-normal winter temperatures and unexpected spring frosts, could reduce wheat yields on dryland (non-irrigated) wheat farms by 15-30% compared to last year.”

The agency's forecast for barley is even more pessimistic, as production is expected to decrease by 28% compared to last year to 5.1 million tons.

"Compared to wheat, barley has a higher risk of drought because almost all of it is grown on dry lands," FAS said.

As a result, according to FAS forecasts, Turkey will import 1.6 million tons of barley (compared to 150 thousand tons in 2024/25MY), which will be the largest total import volume after the 2.8 million tons imported in 2021/22MY.

“The forecast assumes that the government will intervene in the market, as it has done in the past, either by lowering tariffs, setting import quotas, or forcing the Turkish Grain Board to import and resell barley to end consumers,” the FAS said in a statement.

The growing need for barley and wheat imports will increase demand for Ukrainian grain, so given the reduced harvest in Ukraine (especially barley), we can expect further growth in demand and prices.