USDA European office raises grain production forecasts for EU

2021-07-23 12:04:42
Machine translation
USDA European office raises grain production forecasts for EU

Experts of the European representative office of the USDA, thanks to good precipitation, increased the forecast of grain production by EU countries in 2021/22 to 293.3 million tons, which is 5% higher than in the previous season. Low temperatures slowed down the development of crops in the EU, but did not significantly affect the formation of the crop.

 

Total acreage in the EU declined due to reduced corn acreage in the main producing countries of France, Poland, Bulgaria and Austria, although wheat acreage increased.

 

Grain consumption in the EU declined in the previous season due to lower demand for food and animal feed, but this season, according to USDA estimates, they will grow to 266.2 million tons.

 

Compared to the estimates of the July USDA report, the forecast for wheat production in the EU was increased from 138.2 to 138.4 million tons due to the expansion of wheat sowing areas in Austria, Denmark, Bulgaria and Estonia.

 

At the same time, the forecast for wheat exports from the EU was reduced from 34 to 33.4 million tons, which is 9% higher than last year, while the forecast for imports was reduced from 5.8 to 5.4 million tons, which is 0.22 million tons lower than the level of the previous season.

 

The forecast for the corn harvest for the EU was increased from 66.7 to 66.8 million tons compared to the July USDA report (compared to 64.5 million tons in the previous season) due to increased production in Poland, France, Germany and Spain.

 

The forecast for corn imports to the EU was raised from 15 to 15.5 million tons, which is 14% higher than in 2020/21 MG, even despite higher prices for corn than for feed wheat. Recall that last year feed producers actively replaced corn with cheaper wheat.

 

The estimate of corn consumption was lowered from 76.9 to 76.7 million tons, including for feed production – to 57 million tons.

 

The forecast for barley production by EU countries was reduced to 54.5 million tons, which is 1.5% lower than in the previous season due to reduced sowing areas in France, Spain, Germany, Denmark, Finland, Austria and Romania. Accordingly, the estimate of barley exports was lowered to 6.8 million tons.

 

This will increase competition between Ukraine and the UK, where barley production is expected to increase this season.

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