FAO experts lowered their forecast for global grain production and consumption in my 2021/22

FAO experts lowered their forecast compared to November estimates world-class production grain in my 2021/22 by 2.1 million tons to 2791 million tons, which is still 0.7% or 19.2 million tons higher than last year's figure and will be a record. In particular, feed grain production will increase by 1.4% to 1,503 million tons compared to the previous season, and wheat production – by 1% to 769.6 million tons. rice production will grow by 0.9% to a record 518 million tons, despite a decrease in the harvest in Pakistan due to water scarcity and Thailand due to flooding.

In the countries of the northern hemisphere, winter wheat sowing is completed in favorable weather conditions. In the EU, the state of crops is good, and the sowing area will remain at last year's level. In the United States, the rate of sowing is slightly lower than the average annual rate, and the area of sowing will increase by 5% due to the high level of prices. In Ukraine and Russia, the sowing area will be higher than last year, but the lack of moisture negatively affected the crops. For the countries of the East, production forecasts are quite positive, which is facilitated by government assistance programs and high prices.

In the countries of the southern hemisphere, feed grains are sown for the 2022 harvest. in Argentina and Brazil, corn sowing areas will become record, and the weather contributes to the development of crops. In South Africa, despite the increase in the area under corn, the harvest will be lower than last year.

Forecast global consumption grain in my 2021/22 was reduced by 2 million tons compared to November estimates to 2,810 million tons, which is 1.7% higher than in my 2020/21. The forecast for wheat consumption was lowered by 1.8 million tons, as feed wheat will be replaced with corn in feed production. However, its consumption will grow by 2% compared to my 2020/21, and the total consumption of feed grain – by 1.6% to 1,514 million tons. World rice consumption will grow by 1.6% to a record 519 million tons.

Assessment of global values final inventory grain in my 2021/22 increased by 2.9 million tons to 822 million tons compared to the November report, including the forecast of wheat reserves – by 2.6 million tons, which is 1.7% lower than at the beginning of the season. The estimate of feed grain reserves was left at 350 million tons, which is 0.4% lower than in my 2020/21. Global corn stocks will grow for the first time in the last 4 seasons, and rice stocks will reach a record 188 million tons.

The ratio of grain reserves and consumption at the end of my 2021/22 will decrease to 28.6% compared to 29.4% in my 2020/21. In the EU, wheat stocks will grow due to a decrease in consumption, in Russia – due to a reduction in exports, in the UK – due to an increase in imports.

The volume is expected to World Trade grain crops in 2021/22 will grow by 0.7% compared to the previous season to a record 480 million tons, including wheat trade – by 2.2%, while the volume of feed grain trade will decrease by 1.3%.

The reason for this adjustment will be an increase in purchases of barley by Turkey due to a reduction in production and the replacement of barley with corn and wheat in feed rations. The volume of World Trade in January – December 2022 will amount to 51.4 million tons, which is 4.9% higher than in 2021.