Egypt increases corn imports from South America and reduces supplies from Ukraine due to blockade of sea exports

According to the US Food and Agriculture Organization, Egypt will import at least 13 million tons of corn in the current and next seasons, significantly exceeding the highs of previous years (10.5 million tons) due to increased demand from poultry farmers. In the 2025/26 MY, domestic corn consumption will be 16.4 million tons, and in the 2026/27 MY - 17.4 million tons, which will be 4 million tons higher than the average of 2020-2024.

The current disruptions in corn supplies from Ukraine, which along with Brazil has been Egypt’s main grain supplier in recent years, come at a time when Egyptian importers could ramp up purchases. According to Kpler, monthly corn imports peaked at 1.4 million tonnes in March and gradually declined to 241,000 tonnes in June under pressure from falling poultry prices. Total imports for the season were 8 million tonnes, so to meet the USDA forecast, Egyptian importers need to increase purchases to 1 million tonnes/month.

Grain exports from Ukraine could remain low for several months even if shipments resume through Black Sea ports. According to Argus, elevators are filling up with winter wheat, barley and rapeseed, as well as 5.4 million tons of old-crop corn. If the situation does not change, some of the corn will remain unharvested until spring 2027, which could worsen the quality of the harvest, which is expected to be the largest in the last 5 years.

Amidst the reduction in supplies from Ukraine, Egypt will increase purchases of corn from Brazil, the USA, and Argentina.

In recent years, more than half of Egyptian imports have been Brazilian corn, but its exports have now slowed due to the increase in export prices to a 3-month high (FOB Santos/Tubarão), although prices usually fall during this period in anticipation of the second harvest.

Exporters are raising prices following a rise in September corn futures in Chicago as they compete with local ethanol producers.

Against this backdrop, Argentine corn could regain its position in the Egyptian market after a decline in supplies over the past 4 seasons. In the current season, Egypt imported 1.8 million tons of corn from Argentina, the highest level since the 2020/21 MY. Argentina has significant corn stocks and is accelerating its sales, taking advantage of rising SWOT prices. Last week, Argentine corn was offered at a premium of $0.8/bushel to September SWOT futures, while Brazilian corn was offered at a premium of $1.09-1.35/bushel.

With the end of the export season in Argentina, Egypt could increase supplies from the US, which has not previously been a significant supplier to this market. If exports from Ukraine do not resume by September, when the US harvest begins, Egyptian importers will become highly dependent on the volatility of world prices. December corn futures on SWOT are currently trading at a record discount to November futures on Euronext, giving US prices the potential to rise if drought reduces the harvest.