The dollar on the interbank market is rapidly rising
the fall of the hryvnia, which began in the interbank market from Monday, continues for weeks and quotes are very close to the psychological level of 26,8 UAH/$.
the Rate of devaluation of the hryvnia scare even the most experienced dealers. Less than a month the dollar has risen in price 26,545/26,565 UAH/$ to 26.77/26.79 UAH/$, and this is not the final price.
Race course that contrary to the reports of the NBU and Ministry of Finance on stabilization of the financial situation in the country adds further pressure on quotations.
Given the inflation data, soon the NBU will be forced to increase interest rates, which theoretically tied to the inflation rate. To keep the rate unchanged amid rising prices, the national Bank will not be able to even despite favorite "inflation targeting".
With the beginning of the heating season, energy prices in the world markets grow. In this situation the dollar will not allow in the near future to restrain prices. Increase in trade deficit is indicative of the import dependence of the domestic economy. Therefore, even the growth of social benefits may be offset by the devaluation of the hryvnia.
In such a situation there are two possible scenario:
NBU conducts active interventions by selling foreign currency to keep the exchange rate, but it threatens to disrupt the schedule of replenishment of gold reserves, which is agreed upon with the IMF.
- the Rate increase to the budgeted level of 27.2 UAH/$, which will provoke the increase of inflation and the failure of calculations of the national Bank, and so were considered very slim.