Stone X analysts predict an increase in corn and soybean yields in the US, which could significantly adjust prices after the release of the USDA's September balance sheet

The forecast for soybean and corn yields and production in the US, published by Stone X experts on the eve of the USDA report, exceeds the average estimate of analysts and the August estimate of the USDA, which could lead to a sharp drop in stock quotes on Friday if the USDA shows the same data in the September report, where yield estimates will be revised based on physical measurements from the fields, rather than farmer surveys, as was the case in the August report.

Recall that analysts did not expect such a sharp decrease in corn yield forecasts from the August USDA report from 183 to 180.7 bushels/acre and soybeans from 53 to 52.7 bushels/acre compared to July estimates.

Stone X analysts, after surveying agricultural producers, changed their forecasts for the US for the 2026/27 MY as follows:

• soybean yields – increased to 53 bushels/acre (compared to the average analyst estimate of 52.5 bushels/acre and the USDA August report of 52.7 bushels/acre),
• soybean production – increased to 123.75 million tons (analysts – 122.5 million tons, USDA – 123 million tons, in 2025/26 MY – 116 million tons),
• corn yields – decreased from 184.8 to 182.9 bushels/acre (compared to the average analyst estimate of 178.2 bushels/acre and the USDA August report of 180.7 bushels/acre),
• corn production – reduced to 411.7 million tons (analysts – 401 million tons, USDA – 406.7 million tons, in 2025/26 MY – 432.3 million tons).

These optimistic estimates from Stone X indicate that despite localized weather disruptions in late summer, the potential for the U.S. corn crop remains close to record levels. Other analysts are also predicting high yields and production .

If the USDA confirms these estimates in its September report, or at least increases the yield forecast compared to August, stock quotes will drop sharply, since a large speculative component is already included in the prices.