Farmdoc analysts' 2026 US corn crop forecast exceeds USDA estimate

According to the USDA's August report , released on August 12, 2026, the average corn yield in the United States will decrease compared to previous estimates from 183 to 180.7 bushels/acre, and the sowing area will increase by 1.4 million acres, which will allow for 16.013 billion bushels or 406.75 million tons of corn (432.3 million tons last season).

 

Analysts from Farmdoc (University of Illinois) have made their own assessment of the future harvest, based on weekly crop condition ratings and historical trends.

 

According to Farmdoc estimates, the average corn yield will be 183 bushels/acre, which, based on the updated USDA data on sown areas, will allow harvesting 16.19 billion bushels or 412 million tons of corn.

 

Both Farmdoc and USDA predict that the numbers will be lower than last year, when the average yield was 186.5 bushels/acre and the total harvest was 17.02 billion bushels. USDA estimates that corn production will decline by 6% in 2026.

 

During July and August, corn crop conditions in some states deteriorated, with the number of crops in good or excellent condition declining from 68% in July to 61% as of August 10, compared to 72% last year.

 

The highest corn yields are recorded in Iowa and Illinois. The largest discrepancy between Farmdoc and USDA yield estimates is in Tennessee (Farmdoc estimates 24.8 bushels/acre higher than USDA), while in North Dakota and North Carolina, Farmdoc estimates are significantly lower than USDA, due to a large deviation from multi-year trends.

 

The USDA's September report will release revised corn yield estimates based on physical field measurements, rather than farmer surveys as in the August report, so US corn production forecasts may be significantly revised.