Rising wheat stock quotes support prices in Ukraine

On US exchanges, wild jumps in wheat quotes continue, caused by lower production forecasts, weather conditions and hopes for increased supplies to China, but rising prices limit the good global wheat balance for this and next season.

 

Rising US wheat prices support Ukrainian wheat export prices, although demand from importers remains quite weak.

 

The weather in Ukraine is conducive to the development of crops and the completion of sowing of spring crops, and the precipitation forecast for the next 7-10 days will allow for a good harvest potential in 2026.

 

Over the past week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine increased by 50-100 UAH/t to 11,100-11,200 UAH/t or $223-225/t for food wheat and to 10,850-10,900 UAH/t or $217-219/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

 

Wheat exports from Ukraine in the first 14 days of May amounted to only 390 thousand tons (compared to 594 thousand tons last year), and in total in the 2025/26 MY reached 11.71 million tons, which is 25% lower than last year's pace (14.5 million tons).

 

According to USDA, in the US, during May 10-17, the number of wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by another 1% to 27% (52% last year), and the share of crops in poor and very poor condition increased in Kansas from 51% to 58%, in Nebraska - from 82% to 84%, and in Texas - from 60% to 65%. At the same time, 73% of the planned area was sown with spring wheat in the US, which is inferior to last year's pace (80%), but exceeds the 5-year average (66%).

 

July wheat futures rose yesterday on news of an agreement to sell $17 billion worth of agricultural products to China from the US:

• by 4.5% to $244.2/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+4.8% per week),
• by 2.3% to $258.6/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.5%),
• by 2.6% to $258.4/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+2.3%),
• by 1.7% to €213.25/t or $259/t - September wheat futures on Euronext in Paris (+2.4%).

But it is worth noting that China has not confirmed either the amount or the volume of purchases.

 

According to the US Food and Agriculture Organization, wheat exports from the country during May 7-14 decreased by 56% compared to the previous week to 224 thousand tons, and in total in the 2025/26 MY reached 23.1 million tons out of the USDA's forecast of 24.5 million tons, which is 11.3% ahead of last year's pace.

 

Precipitation forecasts in the winter wheat growing regions of Ukraine, the USA and the Russian Federation will restrain the growth of soft wheat prices, although the amount of precipitation in the spring wheat growing zone is insufficient.

 

Improved harvests and forecasts of reduced imports in North African countries will restrain prices in Ukraine in the first months of the 2026/27 season, and only harvest results in the Russian Federation and Canada will affect wheat prices in September and October.